Мэтью Барроуз - Будущее: рассекречено. Каким будет мир в 2030 году

Wolf M. Why Abenomics Will Disappoint // Financial Times, 2013. December 17 // http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/cf682d66-642c-11e3-98e2-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2xB1rm9Q8.

CEBR’s World Economic League Table Report for 2013. Centre for Economics and Business Research, 2013. December 26 // http://www.cebr.com/reports/world-economic-league-table-report/.

CEBR’s World Economic League Table Report for 2013. Centre for Economics and Business Research, 2013. December 26 // http://www.cebr.com/reports/world-economic-league-table-report/; Voigt K. World Top Economies in 2050. CNN Business 360 // http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2012/01/12/worlds-top-economies-in-2050-will-be/. В отчете Войта используются данные HSBC и мирового банка. Schaefer Munoz S. Latin Growth Tune Plays in Two Speeds // Wall Street Journal, 2012. November 30 // http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424127887324020804578151311678565042.

Bremner B. Russia’s 21st Century Malaise in Five Grim Charts // BusinessWeek, 2013. November 19 // http://www.businessweek.com/printer/articles/168260-russias-21st-century-malaise-in-five-grim-charts.

Aslund A. Why Growth in Emerging Economies is Likely to Fall. Working Paper 13–10, Peterson Institute for International Economics, November 2013 // http://www.piie.com/publications/wp/wp13-10.pdf.

Kremer K. China Considers Manned Moon Landing Following Breakthrough Chang’e-3 Mission Success // Universe Today, 2014. January 15 // http://www.universetoday.com/107716/china-considers-manned-moon-landing-following-breakthrough-change-3-mission-success/.

Gannon M. 1st Satellite Built by High School Students Blasts in Space // Fox News, 2013. November 19 // http://www.foxnews.com/science/2013/11/19/phonesat-high-school-students-tuesday/.

Gannon M. 1st Satellite Built by High School Students Blasts in Space // Fox News, 2013. November 19 // http://www.foxnews.com/science/2013/11/19/phonesat-high-school-students-tuesday/.

Gannon M. 1st Satellite Built by High School Students Blasts in Space // Fox News, 2013. November 19 // http://www.foxnews.com/science/2013/11/19/phonesat-high-school-students-tuesday/. См. также: Buck J. NASA Helps Launch Student-Built Satellites as Part of CubeSat Launch Initiative // NASA Press Release 13–343, 2013. November 20 // http://www.nasa.gov/press/2013/november/nasa-helps-launch-student-built-satellites-as-part-of-cubesat-launch-initiative/.

Изначально Goldman Sachs относил к странам БРИК Бразилию, Россию, Индию и Китай. ЮАР недавно присоединилась к политической группе, объединенной по финансовому признаку. Это еще одна из 22 развивающихся стран, упомянутых здесь в числе наиболее важных на региональной и общемировой арене.

Cincotta R. P., Leahy E. Population Age Structure and the Risk of Civil Conflict: A Metric // Environment Change & Security Project Report 12 (2006/2007). Pp. 55–58 // http://wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/PopAgeStructures%2526CivilConflict12.pdf.

Cincotta R. Whither The Demographic Arc of Instability. Stimson Center, 2010. November 24 // http://www.stimson.org/spotlight/whither-the-demographic-arc-of-instability-/.

В любом случае Афганистан останется «молодой» страной, но есть разногласия по поводу того, как скоро начнется снижение численности его жителей. ООН считает, что население Афганистана (около 28 млн человек на текущий момент) пройдет отметку в 50 млн к 2030 году, а Бюро статистики предсказывает, что население к этому моменту будет менее 43 млн человек. См.: Cincotta R. Afghanistan’s Sky-High Birthrate Seems to be Declining – and That’s A Very Good Thing // Foreign Policy, 2009. November 16 // http://www.stimson.org/spotlight/afghanistans-sky-high-birthrate-seems-to-be-declining-and-thats-a-very-good-thing/.

Cincotta R. Minority Youth Bulges and The Future of Intrastate Conflict. Stimson Center, 2011. November 10 // http://www.stimson.org/spotlight/minority-youth-bulges-and-the-future-of-intrastate-conflict-/.

Данные получены при помощи модели International Futures профессора Барри Хьюза (Университет Денвера).

Dobbs R., Remes J., Manyika J. et al. Urban World: Cities and the Rise of the Consuming Class. McKinsey Global Institute, June 2012 // http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/urbanization/urban_world_cities_and_the_rise_of_the_consuming_class.

Envisioning 2030: US Strategy for the Coming Technology Revolution, A Report by the Strategic Foresight Initiative. Atlantic Council, December 2013. P. 12 // http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/images/publications/Envisioning_2030_US_Strategy_for_the_Coming_Tech_Revolution_web.pdf. Благодарю Петера Энгельке и Баннинга Гаррета, моих коллег по Атлантическому совету, за их исследования в области урбанизации.

Harnessing the Dual Global Trends of Urbanization and the Demographic Youth Bulge // Un-Habitat Issue Paper, 2012. May 14 // http://www.un.org/en/ecosoc/julyhls/pdf13/hls_issue_note_un_habitat.pdf.

Manning R. A. Envisioning 2030: US Strategy for a Post-Western World. Atlantic Council, 2012. December 10. Pp. 26–28 // http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/publications/reports/envisioning-2030-us-strategy-for-a-postwestern-world.

Raymond M., Smith G. Reimagining the Internet: The Need for a High-level Strategic Vision for Internet Governance // Internet Governance Papers, paper no. 1. Centre for International Governance Innovation, July 2013 // http://www.cigionline.org/publications/2013/7/reimagining-internet-need-high-level-strategic-vision-internet-governance.

Kurzweil R. The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology. New York: Penguin Books, 2005. P. 205.

Brain Implant Allows Paralysed Woman to Control a Robot with Her Thoughts // Guardian, 2012. May 16 // http://www.theguardian.com/science/2012/may/16/brain-implant-paralysed-woman-robot-thoughts.

Kister C. Brain Implants and the Brain-Computer Interface is a Real Technology: An Interview with Jeff Stibel, Chairman of Braingate, 2013. March 31 // http://www.brainimplant.info/stibel.htm.

Axe D. Combat Exoskeleton Marches Toward Afghanistan Deployment // Wired, 2012. May 23 // http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2012/05/combat-exoskeleton-afghanistan/.

Brimley S., FitzGerald B., Sayler K. Game Changers: Disruptive Technology and U.S. Defense Strategy. Center for a New American Security, September 2013 // http://www.cnas.org/sites/default/files/publications-pdf/CNAS_Gamechangers_BrimleyFitzGeraldSayler.pdf.

См. www.rethinkrobotics.com; Alspach K. MIT Project Aims to Put Baxter Robot in a Magic Show // Boston Business Journal, 2013. October 9; From Silk Orb Built by Man and Worms to a Robot Magician’s Assistant: 5 Cool Things at MIT // OM Giga, 2013. October 11 // http://markets.financialcontent.com/stocks/news/read/25351326/From_a_silk_orb_built_by_man_and_worms_to_a_robot_magician’s_assistant.

Surgical Robots: The Kindness of Strangers // Economist, 2012. January 18 // http://www.economist.com/blogs/babbage/2012/01/surgical-robots.

Brimley, FitzGerald and Sayler, Game Changers.

Есть много исследований о значении «пенсионного бугра». См., например: The Battle of the Baby Bulge // Economist, 2013. November 18 // http://www.economist.com/news/21589074-boomers-need-think-harder-about-their-retirement-income-says-larry-fink-chairman-and-chief. См. также Taylor P. The Next America. New York: Pew Research Center, 2014.

Miles T. Global Life Expectancy: Life Spans Continue to Lengthen Around the World, WHO Says // Reuters, 2013. May 14 // http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/05/15/global-life-expectancy-span-world_n_3281211.html.

Подробнее о кривой стоимости в секвенировании ДНК, не подчиняющейся закону Мура, см. Saenz A. Costs of DNA Sequencing Falling Fast – Look at These Graphs! // SingularityHUB // http://singularityhub.com/2011/03/05/costs-of-dna-sequencing-falling-fast-look-at-these-graphs/.

Disruptive Technologies: Advances that Will Transform Live, Business and the Global Economy. McKinsey Global Institute, May 2013 // http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/business_technology/disruptive_technologies.

Gilham I. Theranostics: An Emerging Tool in Drug Discovery and Commercialisation // Drug Discovery World, Fall 2002 // http://www.ddw-online.com/personalised-medicine/p148484-theranostics-an-emerging-tool-in-drug-discovery-and-commercialisation-fall-02.html.

Van Heertum R. Theranostics: The Right Therapy for the Right Patient at the Right Time // Bioclinica, 2013. July 24 // http://www.bioclinica.com/blog/theranostics-right-therapy-for-right-patient-at-right-time.

T. C. Computer-Aided Medicine: Doctor Watson // Babbage: Science and Technology blog, Economist, 2013. October 13 // http://www.economist.com/blogs/babbage/2013/02/computer-aided-medicine.

Specter M. The Gene Factory // New Yorker, 2014. January 6 // http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2014/01/06/the-gene-factory.

Tiffany Trade. Supercomputer Models Human Brain Activity // HPC Wire // http://www.hpcwire.com/2014/01/15/supercomputer-models-human-brain-activity/.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence.

Garrett B. A World Run on Algorithms? // FutureScape, публикация Инициативы стратегического прогнозирования Атлантического совета, июль 2013 года // http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/images/publications/a_world_run_on_algorithms.pdf.

Майер-Шенбергер В., Кукьер К. Большие данные. Революция, которая изменит то, как мы живем, работаем и мыслим. М.: Манн, Иванов и Фербер, 2013.