Лестер Браун - Как избежать климатических катастроф?: План Б 4.0: спасение цивилизации

Giles Tremlett, “Climate Change Lays Waste to Spain’s Glaciers”, Guardian (London), 23 February 2009.

Anne Minard, “No More Glaciers in Glacier National Park by 2020?” National Geographic News , 2 February 2009.

Michael Kiparsky and Peter Gleick, Climate Change and California Water Resources: A Survey and Summary of the Literature (Oakland, CA: Pacific Institute, 2003); Timothy Cavagnaro et al., Climate Change: Challenges and Solutions for California Agricultural Landscapes (Sacramento, CA: California Climate Change Center, 2006).

Michael J. Scott et al., “Climate Change and Adaptation in Irrigated Agriculture — A Case Study of the Yakima River” — в книге: UCOWR/ NIWR Conference, Water Allocation: Economics and the Environment (Carbondale, IL: Universities Council on Water Resources, 2004); Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, “Global Warming to Squeeze Western Montains Dry by 2050”, press release (Richland, WA: 16 February 2004).

John E. Sheeby, International Rice Research Institute, сообщение по электронной почте, посланное Джанет Ларсен из Earth Policy Institute 1 октября 2002 г.; Pedro Sanchez, “The Climate Change-Soil Fertility-Food Security Nexus”, выступление на конференции “Устойчивая продовольственная безопасность для всех к 2020 г.”, Бонн, Германия 4–6 сентября 2002 г.

K. S. Kavi Kumar and Jyoti Parikh, “Socio-Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Indian Agriculture”, International Review for Environmental Strategies , vol. 2, No. 2 (2001), pp. 277–293; U. N. Population Division, op. cit. note 59.

Mohan К. Wali et al., “Assessing Terrestrial Ecosystem Sustainability”, Nature & Resources , October-December 1999, pp. 21–33.

Shaоbing Peng et al., “Rice Yields Decline with Higher Night Temperature from Global Warming”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences , “Warmer Evening Temperatures Lower Rice Yields”, press release (Washington, DC: 29 June 2004).

Sheehy, op. cit. note 65; Sanchez, op. cit. note 65.

Tim P. Barnett et al., “Human-Induced Changes in the Hydrology of the Western United States”, Science , vol. 319 (22 February 2008); T. M. Shanahan et al., “Atlantic Forcing of Persistent Drought in West Africa”, Scienc e, vol. 324 (17 April 2009); Marshall B. Burke, David B. Lobell, and Luigi Guarino, “Shifts in African Crop Climates by 2050, and the Implications for Crop Improvement and Genetic Resources Conservation”, Global Environmental Change , в печати.

U. N. Population Division, op. cit. note 59; Burke, Lobell, and Guarino, op. cit. note 70; Marlowe Hood, “Warming May Outstrip Africa’s Ability to Feed Itself: Study”, Agence France-Presse , 17 June 2009.

IEA, op. cit. note 6, pp. 221, 225; DOE, EIA, “How Dependent Are We on Foreign Oil?” — см.: tonto.eia.doe.gov/energy_in_brief/foreign_oil_dependence.cfm, материал обновлен 23 апреля 2009 г.; U. S. Bureau of the Census, “Most of Us Still Drive to Work Alone — Public Transportation Commuters Concentrated in a Handful of Large Cities”, press release (Washington DC: 13 June 2007); Peter Whorinskey, “GM to Build Small Car in U. S.”, Washington Post , 29 May 2009.

Ayesha Rascoe, “U. S. Oil Demand in 2008 Hit a 10-year Low: Government”, Reuters , 7 July 2009; DOE, EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook (Washington DC: 27 February 2009), pp. 22; Ayesha Rascoe, “U. S. Public Transit 2008 Ridership Highest in 52 years”, Reuters, 9 March 2009.

Campbell, op. cit. note 5; Michael T. Klare, “Entering the Tough Oil Era”, TomDispatch.com , 16 August 2007.

Michael T. Klare, “The Energy Crunch to Come”, TomDispatch.com , 22 March 2005; Jad Mouawad, “Big Oil’s Burden of Too Much Cash”, New York Times , 12 February 2005; Mark Williams, “The End of Oil?”, Technology Review , February 2005; John Vidal, “The End of Oil Is Closer Than You Think”, Guardian (London), 21 April 2005.

James Pincero, “If We Really Have the Oil”, Bloomberg Wealth Manager , September 2002, p. 45; Klare, op. cit. note 75; Richard C. Duncan and Walter Youngquist, “Encircling the Peak of World Oil Production”, National Resources Research , vol. 12, No. 4 (December 2003), p. 222; Walter Youngquist, GeoDestinies: The Inevitable Control of Earth Resources over Nations and Individuals (Portland: National Book Company, 1997); A. M. Samsam Bakhtiari, “World Oil Production Capacity Model Suggests Output Peak by 2006–07”, Oil and Gas Journal , 26 April 2004, pp. 18–20.

Fredrick Robelius, Giant Oil Fields — The Highway to Oil (Uppsala, Sweden: Uppsala University Press, 9 March 2007), pp. 81–84; Petrobras Brazil, “Production Goes on Stream in Tupi: Year I of a New Era” — см.: www2.petrobras.com.br/Petrobras/ingles/area_tupi.asp, просмотрено 17 июня 2009 г.

Guy Chazan and Neil King Jr., “Russian Oil Slump Stirs Supply Jitters”, Wall Street Journal , 15 April 2008; данные о снижении добычи нефти в России см. в: IEA, Oil Market Report (Paris: May 2009).

Vidal, op. cit. note 75.

Gargi Chakrabarry, “Shale’s New Hope”, Rocky Mountain News , 18 October 2004; Walter Youngquist, “Alterantive Energy Sources” — в книге: Lee C. Gerhard, Patrick Leahy, and Victor Yannacone, eds., Sustainability of Energy and Water through the 21st Century , Proceedings of the Arbor Day Farm Conference, 8–11 October 2000 (Lawrence, KS: Kansas Geological Survey, 2002), p. 65.

Rober Collier, “Canadian Oil Sands: Vast Reserves Second to Saudi Arabia Will Keep America Moving, But at a Steep Environmental Cost”, San Francisco Chronicle , 22 May 2005; Alberta Department of Energy, Alberta’s Oil Sands, 2008 (Edmonton, Alberta: June 2009); BP, BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2009 (London: June 2009) p. 11; Robin Pagnamenta, “Canadian Oil-Sand Mines Stuck as Crude Price Plummets”, The Times (London), 5 January 2009; Jad Mouawad, “Big Oil Projects Out in Jeopardy by Fall in Prices”, New York Times , 16 December 2008.

Sheila McNulty, “Tar Sands Refinery Projects Face a Sticky Future”, Financial Times , 5 January 2009; Collier, op. cit note 81; Alfred J. Cavallo, “Oil: Caveat Empty”, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists , vol. 61, No. 3 (May/ June 2005), pp. 16–18; Richard Heinberg, “The End of the Oil Age”, Earth Island Journal , vol. 18, No. 3 (fall 2003).

IEA, op. cit. note, p. 507.

World Health Organization, “Air Pollution”, Fact Sheet 187 (Geneva: revised September 2000); Janet Larsen, “Coal Takes Heavy Human Toll: Some 25,100 U. S. Deaths from Coal Use Largely Preventable”, Eco-Economy Update (Washington DC: Earth Policy Institute, 24 August 2004).

U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Science and Technology, “National Listing of Fish Advisories: 2005–06 National Listing”, fact sheet (Washington, DC: July 2007).

Jonathan Watts, “Beijing Blames Pollutants for Rise in Killer Cancers”, Guardian (London), 22 May 2007.

Barbara Demick, “China Blames Pollution for Surge in Birth Defects”, Los Angeles Times , 2 February 2009; Steven Mufson, “Asian Nations Could Outspace U. S. in Developing Clean Energy”, Washington Post , 16 July 2009.

Keith Bradsher, “Green Power Takes Root in the Chinese Desert”, New York Times , 2 July 2009.

IEA, op. cit. note 6, p. 507.

Paul Hawken, Commencement Address to the Class of 2009, University of Portland, Portland, OR, 3 May 2009.

Global Wind Energy Council, Global Wind 2008 Report (Brussels, 2009), pp. 3, 56; Erik Shuster, Tracking New Coal-Fired Power Plants (Pittsburgh, PA: U. S. Department of Energy (DOE), National Energy Technology Laboratory, January 2009); “Nuclear Dips in 2008”, World Nuclear News , 29 May 2009; один мегаватт установленной мощности, генерирующей энергию с помощью ветра, вырабатывает достаточно электроэнергии для снабжения 300 домов — см.: American Wind Energy Association “U. S. Wind Energy Installations Reach New Milestone” (Washington, DC, 14 August 2006), press release; число домов вычислено на основе данных о среднем размере домашнего хозяйства в США, полученных из публикации: U. S. Census Bureau “2005–2007 American Community Survey 3-Year Estimates — Data Profile Highlights” — см.: factfinder.census.gov/servlet/ACSSAFFFacts (просмотрено 9 апреля 2009 г.) и данным о населении из электронной базы данных того же Бюро State and Country QuickFacts, обновленной 20 февраля 2009 г. — см.: quickfacts.census.gov.

Поведение двуокиси углерода смоделировано на основе данных о продуктах горения ископаемых видов топлива, приведенных в работе: Tom Boden, Gregg Marland, “Global CO2 Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Burning, Cement Manufacture, and Gas Flaring: 1751 — 06” и “Preliminary 2006–2007 Global and National Estimates by Extrapolation”, обе работы опубликованы в сборнике: Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Center (CDIAC), Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions (Oak Ridge, TN: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), 2009), а также на основе данных об изменении выбросов в зависимости от изменения характера землепользования, приведенных в статье R. A. Houghton, “Carbon Flux to the Atmosphere from Land-Use Changes” — см.: CDIAC, Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global change (Oak Ridge, TN: ORNL, 2008), ниспадающая кривая приведена в J. Hansen и др., “Dangerous Human-Made Interference with Climate: A GISS ModelE Study”, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics , vol. 7 (2007), pp. 2, 287–312; данные о текущей концентрации СО2 в атмосфере взяты из статьи: Pieter Tans, “Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide — Mauna Loa”, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Earth System Research Laboratory, — см.: www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends просмотрена автором 7 апреля 2009.