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Понятие байесовской вероятности происходит от математической теоремы, выведенной из работ Реверенда Томаса Байеса (1702-1761), хотя сам он не предлагал ее как модель человеческого мышления. Грубо говоря, теорема утверждает, что возможность некоего события зависит от его правдоподобия и осуществимости.