Мартин Форд - Роботы наступают
- Название:Роботы наступают
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- Издательство:Альпина нон-фикшн
- Год:2016
- ISBN:978-5-9614-4386-8
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Мартин Форд - Роботы наступают краткое содержание
Смогут ли роботы обеспечить людям материальное изобилие, избыток свободного времени, качественную медицину и образование или же они превратят нашу планету в мир неравенства и массовой безработицы? Правда ли, что усердие и талант перестанут быть залогом жизненных достижений?
Успешный разработчик программ и IT-предприниматель Мартин Форд не претендует на то, что знает ответы на все вопросы, но аргументированно и веско показывает, почему современные технологии способны оказаться намного более разрушительными для рынка труда, чем инновации прошлого. Цель автора — не испугать читателя, а привлечь внимание к этим непростым темам. Эту увлекательную и содержательную книгу стоит прочитать всем, кто хочет понять, как развитие новых технологий влияет на экономические перспективы, на наших детей и на общество в целом.
Роботы наступают - читать онлайн бесплатно ознакомительный отрывок
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См. подробнее о производительности в США в пресс-релизе Бюро трудовой статистик США от 06.03.2014: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/prod2.nr0.htm.
277
Lawrence Mishel, «Declining Value of the Federal Minimum Wage Is a Major Factor Driving Inequality», Economic Policy Institute, February 21, 2013, http://www.epi.org/publication/declining-federal-minimum-wage-inequality/.
278
Eric Schlosser, Fast Food Nation: The Dark Side of the All-American Meal (New York: Harper, 2004), p. 66.
279
Emmanuel Saez, «Striking It Richer: The Evolution of Top Incomes in the United States», University of California, Berkeley, September 3, 2013, http://elsa.berkeley.edu/~saez/saez-UStopincomes-2012.pdf.
280
Andrew G. Berg and Jonathan D. Ostry, «Inequality and Unsustainable Growth: Two Sides of the Same Coin?», International Monetary Fund, April 8, 2011, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/sdn/2011/sdn1108.pdf.
281
Andrew G. Berg and Jonathan D. Ostry, «Warning! Inequality May Be Hazardous to Your Growth», iMFdirect, April 8, 2011, http://blog-imfdirect.imf.org/2011/04/08/inequality-and-growth/.
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Ellen Florian Kratz, «The Risk in Subprime», CNN Money, March 1, 2007, http://money.cnn.com/2007/02/28/magazines/fortune/subprime.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2007030117.
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Senior Supervisors Group, «Progress Report on Counterparty Data», January 15, 2014, http://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/banking/2014/SSG_Progress_Report_on_Counterparty_January2014.pdf.
284
Noah Smith, «Drones Will Cause an Upheaval of Society Like We Haven't Seen in 700 Years», Quartz, March 11, 2014, http://qz.com/185945/drones-are-about-to-upheave-society-in-a-way-we-havent-seen-in-700-years.
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Barry Bluestone and Mark Melnik, «After the Recovery: Help Needed», Civic Ventures, 2010, http://www.encore.org/files/research/JobsBluestonePaper3-5-10.pdf.
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Andy Sharp and Masaaki Iwamoto, «Japan Real Wages Fall to Global Recession Low in Abe [Japanese Prime Minister] Risk», Bloomberg Businessweek, February 5, 2014, http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-02-05/japan-real-wages-fall-to-global-recession-low-in-spending-risk.
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См. подробнее о безработице среди молодых: Ian Sivera, «Italy's Youth Unemployment at 42 % as Jobless Rate Hits 37-Year High». International Business Times , January 8, 2014, http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/italys-jobless-rate-hits-37-year-record-high-youth-unemployment-reaches-41-6-1431445; а также: Ian Sivera, «Spain's Youth Unemployment Rate Hits 57.7 % as Europe Faces a 'Lost Generation'», International Business Times , January 8, 2014, http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/spains-youth-unemployment-rate-hits-57-7-europe-faces-lost-generation-1431480.
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James M. Poterba, «Retirement Security in an Aging Society», National Bureau of Economic Research, NBER Working Paper No. 19930, issued in February 2014, http://www.nber.org/papers/w19930, а также http://www.nber.org/papers/w19930.pdf. См. таблицу 9 на с. 21.
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Там же., на основе таблицы 15 на с. 39; см. ряд под заголовком «Joint & Survivor, Male 65 and Female 60, 100 % Survivor Income-Life Annuity». В рамках альтернативного плана с 3 %-ным ежегодным повышением суммы такое домохозяйство получало бы всего лишь $3700 (или около $300 в месяц).
290
Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, «The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?», Oxford Martin School, Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology, September 17, 2013, p. 38, http://www.futuretech.ox.ac.uk/sites/futuretech.ox.ac.uk/files/The_Future_of_Employment_OMS_Working_Paper_1.pdf.
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Данные по демографической ситуации в Китае см.: Deirdre Wang Morris, «China's Aging Population Threatens Its Manufacturing Might», CNBC, October 24, 2012, http://www.cnbc.com/id/49498720и «World Population Ageing 2013», United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, p. 32, http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/pdf/ageing/WorldPopulationAgeing2013.pdf.
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Подробнее о норме сбережений в Китае (которая, как уже было сказано, превышает 40 %) см.: Keith B. Richburg, «Getting Chinese to Stop Saving and Start Spending Is a Hard Sell», Washington Post , July 5, 2012, http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/getting-chinese-to-stop-saving-and-start-spending-is-a-hard-sell/2012/07/04/gJQAc7P6OW_story_1.html, и «China's Savings Rate World's Highest», China People's Daily , November 30, 2012, http://english.people.com.cn/90778/8040481.html.
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Mike Riddell, «China's Investment/GDP Ratio Soars to a Totally Unsustainable 54.4 %. Be Afraid», Bond Vigilantes, January 14, 2014, http://www.bondvigilantes.com/blog/2014/01/24/chinas-investmentgdp-ratio-soars-to-a-totally-unsustainable-54-4-be-afraid/.
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Dexter Robert, «Expect China Deposit Rate Liberalization Within Two Years, Says Central Bank Head», Bloomberg Businessweek, March 11, 2014, http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-03-11/china-deposit-rate-liberalization-within-two-years-says-head-of-chinas-central-bank.
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Shang-Jin Wei and Xiaobo Zhang, «Sex Ratios and Savings Rates: Evidence from 'Excess Men' in China», February 16, 2009, http://igov.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/Shang-Jin.pdf.
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Caroline Baum, «So Who's Stealing China's Manufacturing Jobs?», Bloomberg News, October 14, 2003, http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aRI4bAft7Xw4.
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Подробнее о связи инвестиций и бизнес-циклов см.: Paul Krugman, «Shocking Barro», New York Times (The Conscience of a Liberal blog), September 12, 2011, http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/12/shocking-barro/.
298
Stephen Hawking, Stuart Russell, Max Tegmark, and Frank Wilczek, «Stephen Hawking: 'Transcendence Looks at the Implications of Artificial Intelligence — But Are We Taking AI Seriously Enough? '», The Independent , May 1, 2014, http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/stephen-hawking-transcendence-looks-at-the-implications-of-artificial-intelligence-but-are-we-taking-ai-seriously-enough-9313474.html.
299
Баррат Д. Последнее изобретение человечества. — М.: Альпина нон-фикшн, 2015.
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Yann LeCun, Google+ Post, October 28, 2013, https://plus.google.com/+YannLeCunPhD/posts/Qwj9EEkUJXY.
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Gary Marcus, «Hyping Artificial Intelligence, Yet Again», New Yorker (Elements blog), January 1, 2014, http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/elements/2014/01/the-new-york-times-artificial-intelligence-hype-machine.html.
302
Vernor Vinge, «The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era», NASA VISION-21 Symposium, March 30–31, 1993.
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Vernor Vinge, «The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era», NASA VISION-21 Symposium, March 30–31, 1993.
304
Robert M. Geraci, «The Cult of Kurzweil: Will Robots Save Our Souls?», USC Religion Dispatches, http://www.religiondispatches.org/archive/culture/4456/the_cult_of_kurzweil%3A_will_robots_save_our_souls/.
305
«Noam Chomsky: The Singularity Is Science Fiction!» (interview), YouTube, October 4, 2013, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0kICLG4Zg8s#t=1393.
306
Цит. по: IEEE Spectrum , «Tech Luminaries Address Singularity», http://spectrum.ieee.org/computing/hardware/tech-luminaries-address-singularity.
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Цит. по: IEEE Spectrum , «Tech Luminaries Address Singularity», http://spectrum.ieee.org/computing/hardware/tech-luminaries-address-singularity.
308
James Hamblin, "But What Would the End of Humanity Mean for Me ?", The Atlantic, May 9, 2014, http://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2014/05/but-what-does-the-end-of-humanity-mean-for-me/361931/.
309
Gary Marcus, «Why We Should Think About the Threat of Artificial Intelligence», New Yorker (Elements blog), October 24, 2013, http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/elements/2013/10/why-we-should-think-about-the-threat-of-artificial-intelligence.html.
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P. Z. Myers, «Ray Kurzweil Does Not Understand the Brain», Pharyngula Science Blog, August 17, 2010, http://scienceblogs.com/pharyngula/2010/08/17/ray-kurzweil-does-not-understa/.
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Barrat, Our Final Invention: Artificial Intelligence and the End of the Human Era, pp. 7-21.
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Richard Feynman, «There's Plenty of Room at the Bottom», lecture at CalTech, December 29, 1959; см. полный текст: http://www.zyvex.com/nanotech/feynman.html.
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Подробнее о финансировании нанотехнологий на федеральном уровне см.: John F. Sargent Jr., «The National Nanotechnology Initiative: Overview, Reauthorization, and Appropriations Issues», Congressional Research Service, December 17, 2013, https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RL34401.pdf.
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K. Eric Drexler, Radical Abundance: How a Revolution in Nanotechnology Will Change Civilization (New York: PublicAffairs, 2013), p. 205.
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K. Eric Drexler, Radical Abundance: How a Revolution in Nanotechnology Will Change Civilization (New York: PublicAffairs, 2013), p. 205.
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K. Eric Drexler, Engines of Creation: The Coming Era of Nanotechnology (New York: Anchor Books, 1986, 1990), p. 173.
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Bill Joy, «Why the Future Doesn't Need Us», Wired, April 2000, http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/8.04/joy.html.
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Сайт Institute of Nanotechnology: http://www.nano.org.uk/nano/nanotubes.php.
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Luciana Gravotta, «Cheap Nanotech Filter Clears Hazardous Microbes and Chemicals from Drinking Water», Scientific American, May 7, 2013, http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/cheap-nanotech-filter-water/.
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