Вернер Ротенгаттер - Мегапроекты и риски. Анатомия амбиций
- Название:Мегапроекты и риски. Анатомия амбиций
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- Издательство:Альпина Паблишер
- Год:2014
- Город:Москва
- ISBN:978-5-9614-3393-7
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64
M. Gaudry, B. Mandel and W. Rothengatter, “Linear and Nonlinear Logit Models”, Transportation Research, часть B, том 28, № 6, 1994; B. Mandel, Schnellverkehr und Modal Split (Baden Baden: Nomos, 1992).
65
S. P. Huntington and J. S. Nye, Jr., Global Dilemmas (Cambridge, MA: Harvard, 1985).
66
Больше информации о предвзятости промоутеров проектов, см.: Flyvbjerg, Holm and Buhl, “Underestimating Costs in Public Works Projects: Error or Lie?”, Journal of the American Planning Association.
67
См. также Major Projects Association, Beyond 2000: A Source Book for Major Projects, с. 155; The Economist, 30 апреля 1994 г., с. 13, 73–4.
68
CNN, Financial News, 21 октября 1994 г.
69
The Economist, 31 января 1998 г., с. 74; 24 мая 1997 г., с. 67–8; 30 апреля 1994 г., с. 73; 29 апреля 1989 г., с. 73.
70
Danish Parliamentary Auditor’s Committee, Beretning от Storebæltsforbindelsens økonomi, Beretning 4/97 (Copenhagen: Statsrevisoratet (Auditor’s office), 1998), с. 30–36.
71
The Danish Parliament, Law no. 1233, 27 декабря 1996 г.
72
Danish Parliamentary Auditor’s Committee, Beretning от Storebæltsfobindelsens økonomi, с. 55–7.
73
Sund & B æ lt. Årsberetning 1999 (Копенгаген: Холдинг Sund & Bælt, 2000), с. 20–23.
74
Sund & B æ lt, Årsberetning 2001 (Копенгаген: Холдинг Sund & Bælt, 2002), с. 27.
75
Sund & B æ lt, Årsberetning 1999, с. 23.
76
Ibid., с. 22; Sund & Bælt, Årsberetning 2001, с. 29.
77
Ibid., с. 24.
78
Danish Parliamentary Auditor’s Committee, Beretning от Storebæltsfobindelsens økonomi, 1998, с. 58.
79
Danish Parliament, “Aftale mellem Danmarks regering og Sveriges regering om en fast forbindelse over Øresund”, signed 23 March 1991, article 21; Annex to Danish Parliament, “Forslag til Lov om anlæg af fast forbindelse over Øresund”, Lovforslag nr. L 178, proposed 2 May 1991.
80
Ibid.
81
Danish Auditor-General, Beretning til statsrevisorerne от udviklingen i de økonomiske overslag vedrørende Øresundsforbindelsen, с. 16–28.
82
Ibid., с. 12.
83
Ministry of Transport, Ministry of Finance and Sund & Bælt Holding, Ltd., Udredning af økonomien i А/S Øresundsforbindelsen (de danske anlæg) (Copenhagen: Author, 2002).
84
Ibid., с. 33.
85
Bent Flyvbjerg, “Economic Risk in Public Works Projects: The Case of Urban Rail”, paper, forthcoming.
86
Более подробно по проблеме погони за рентой, см.: Mushtaq Н. Khan and К. S. Jomo, eds., Rents, Rent-Seeking and Economic Development: Theory and Evidence in Asia (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2000).
87
Swedish Auditor-General, Infrastrukturinvesteringar: En kostnadsjämförelse mellan plan och utfall i 15 större projekt inom Vägverket och Banverket, RRV 1994:23.
88
Ibid., Annex 2:1.
89
Pickrell, Urban Rail Transit Projects: Forecast Versus Actual Ridership and Cost; Richmond, New Rail Transit Investments: A Review.
90
Pickrell, Urban Rail Transport Projects, с. xi.
91
Ibid., с. xvii. См. также Kain, “Choosing the Wrong Technology: Or How to Spend Billions and Reduce Transit Use”, с. 197–213.
92
Fouracre, Allport and Thomson, The Performance and Impact of Rail Mass Transit in Developing Countries, TRRL Research Report no. 278, с. 7–12.
93
Ibid., с. 14.
94
Ibid., с. 10.
95
Основные источники: Merewitz, “Cost Overruns in Public Works”, in Niskanen et al., eds., Benefit-Cost and Policy Analysis; ibid., reprint no. 114; Merewitz, How Do Urban Rapid Transit Projects Compare in Cost Estimate Experience? Reprint no. 104; Hall, Great Planning Disasters; World Bank, Economic Analysis of Projects: Towards a Results-Oriented Approach to Evaluation, ECON Report; Fraser, “Compensation for Extra Preliminary and General (P & G) Costs Arising from Delays, Variations and Disruptions: The Palmiet Pumped Storage Scheme”; Dlakwa and Culpin, “Reasons for Overrun in Public Sector Construction Projects in Nigeria”; Morris and Hough, The Anatomy of Major Projects: A Study of the Reality of Project Management; Arditi, Akan and Gurdamar, “Cost Overruns in Public Projects”; Canaday, Construction Cost Overruns in Electric Utilities: Some Trends and Implications; Henderson, “Two British Errors: Their Probable Size and Some Possible Lessons”; Blake, Cox and Fraize, Analysis of Projected Vs. Actual Costs for Nuclear and Coal-Fired Power Plants; Department of Energy Study Group, North Sea Costs Escalation Study, Hufschmidt and Gerin, “Systematic Errors in Cost Estimates for Public Investment Projects”, in Margolis, ed.. The Analysis of Public Output; Healey, “Errors in Project Cost Estimates”.
96
World Bank, World Development Report 1994: Infrastructure for Development, с. 86.
97
Measured as economic rates of return. World Bank, ECON Report, Economic Analysis of Projects, с. 14, 21.
98
World Bank, World Development Report 1994, с. 17.
99
World Bank, ECON Report, Economic Analysis of Projects, с. 21.
100
Frank P. Davidson and Jean-Claude Huot, “Management Trends for Major Projects”, Project Appraisal, том 4, № 3, сентябрь 1989 г., с. 137.
101
Martin Wachs, “Ethics and Advocacy in Forecasting for Public Policy”, Business and Professional Ethics Journal, том 9, №№ 1 и 2, 1990.
102
При наличии информации о 40 проектах, по которым было возможно установить достоверные данные о расходах на строительство и развитии движения, мы смогли определить только пять проектов с относительно точными прогнозами, для которых фактическое развитие было определено в интервале прогнозированного развития ±20 процентов. Оставшиеся 35 проектов не вошли в этот интервал, и только один (1) проект имел завышение прогноза расходов и занижение прогноза движения более, чем на 20 процентов.
103
См. также World Bank, An Overview of Monitoring and Evaluation in the Wоrld Bank, Report no. 13247, Operations Evaluation Department (Washington, DC: World Bank, 1994); and World Bank, Evaluation Results 1992, Operations Evaluation Department (Washington, DC: World Bank, 1994).
104
Pickrell, Urban Rail Transit Projects: Forecast Versus Actual Ridership and Cost; Pickrell, “A Desire Named Streetcar: Fantasy and Fact in Rail Transit Planning”, с. 158–76.
105
Merewitz, “Cost Overruns in Public Works”, in Niskanen et al, eds., Benefit-Cost and Policy Analysis, с. 280.
106
Bent Flyvbjerg, “The Dark Side of Planning: Rationality and Realrationalität” , in Seymour Mandelbaum, Luigi Mazza and Robert Burchell, eds., Explorations in Planning Theory (New Brunswick, NJ: Center for Urban Policy Research Press, 1996); Wachs, “When Planners Lie with Numbers”, с. 476–479.
107
Wachs, “Technique Vs. Advocacy in Forecasting: A Study of Rail Rapid Transit”, с. 23–30; Wachs, “When Planners Lie with Numbers”; Wachs, “Ethics and Advocacy in Forecasting for Public Policy”, с. 141–57.
108
Wachs, “Ethics and Advocacy in Forecasting for Public Policy”, с. 144.
109
Wachs, “Technique Vs. Advocacy in Forecasting”, с. 28.
110
Wachs, “Ethics and Advocacy in Forecasting for Public Policy”, с. 146; Wachs, “Technique Vs. Advocacy in Forecasting”, с. 28.
111
Flyvbjerg, Holm and Buhl, “Underestimating Costs in Public Works Projects: Error or Lie?”
112
Ben Dipper, Carys Jones and Christopher Wood, “Monitoring and Post-auditing in Environmental Impact Assessment: A Review”, Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, том 41, № 6, ноябрь 1998 г., с. 731, 744.
113
Brundtland Commission, Our Common Future (Oxford University Press, 1987); Barry Sadler, International Study of the Effectiveness of Environmental Assessment, Interim Report and Discussion Paper (Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency, 1995).
114
Prime Minister’s Office, Circular no. 31, Copenhagen: Prime Minister’s Office, February 1993 and February 1994.
115
R. Gregory, R. Keeney and D. V. Winterfeldt, “Adapting the Environmental Impact Statement Process to Inform Decisionmakers”, Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, том 11, № 1, 1992, с. 61.
116
German Federal Ministry for Transport, Bundesverkehrswegeplan.
117
Morten Andersson et al., Miljøvurdering af transportprojekter: et case studie (Research Center for Environmental Assessment, Roskilde University, 1994); Andersson and Bo Elling, Environmental Impact Assessment on Transport Projects in Denmark (Research Centre for Environmental Assessment, Roskilde University, 1992).
118
T. O’Riordan, “On Greening of Major Projects”, in Major Projects Association, Major Projects and the Environment, Proceedings of a Royal Geographical Society/Major Projects Association Conference, Technical Paper, no. 8, Oxford: Major Projects Association, June 1989; Alan Gilpin, Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA): Cutting Edge for the Twenty-First Century (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1995).
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