Оливье Сибони - Думай и не ошибайся! Как избежать ловушек сознания

Литература по теме «Недооценка конкурентов» см. литературу Главы 4, о прекращении инвестирования в неудачные проекты см. литературу Главы 5.

Попытки преодолеть влияние искажений

Dobelli, Rolf. The Art of Thinking Clearly .Translated by Nicky Griffin. New York: HarperCollins, 2013.

Finkelstein, Sydney, Jo Whitehead, and Andrew Campbell. Think Again: Why Good Leaders Make Bad Decisions and How to Keep It From Happening to You. Boston: Harvard Business Press, 2008.

Hammond, John S., Ralph L. Keeney, and Howard Raiffa. “The Hidden Traps in Decision Making.” Harvard Business Review, January 2006, 47–58.

Слепое пятно искажений

Fischhoff, Baruch. “Debiasing.” In Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, edited by Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, and Amos Tversky, 422–44. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1982.

Milkman, Katherine L., Dolly Chugh, and Max H. Bazerman . “How Can Decision Making Be Improved?” Perspectives on Psychological Science4, no. 4 (2009): 379–83.

Morewedge, Carey K., et al. “Debiasing Decisions: Improved Decision Makingwith a Single Training Intervention.” Policy Insights from the Behavioral and Brain Sciences2, no. 1 (2015): 129–40.

Nisbett, Richard E. Mindware: Tools for Smart Thinking . New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2015.

Pronin, Emily, Daniel Y. Lin, and Lee Ross. “ The Bias Blind Spot: Asymmetric Perceptions of Bias in Others Versus the Self.” Personality and Social PsychologyBulletin28, no. 3 (2002): 369–81.

Sellier, Anne-Laure, Irene Scopelliti, and Carey K. Morewedge. “Debiasing Training Transfers to Improve Decision Making in the Field.” Psychological Science30, no. 9 (2019): 1371–79.

Soll, Jack B., Katherine L. Milkman, and John W. Payne.“ A User’s Guide to Debiasing.” In The Wiley Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making, Vol. 2, edited by Gideon Keren and George Wu, 924–51. Chichester, UK: Wiley-Blackwell, 2016.

Карибский кризис

Kennedy, Robert F. Thirteen Days: A Memoir of the Cuban Missile Crisis . New York: W. W. Norton, 1969.

White, Mark. “ Robert Kennedy and the Cuban Missile Crisis: A Reinterpretation.” American Diplomacy, September 2007.

Разное

McKinsey & Company. “Dan Ariely on Irrationality in the Workplace.” Интервью Февраль 2011. https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/ strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/dan-ariely-on-irrationality-in – the-workplace#.

Preston, Caroline E., and Stanley Harris. “Psychology of Drivers in Traffic Accidents.” Journal of Applied Psychology49, no. 4 (1965): 284–88.

Примечания

Мы не просто слепы к некоторым очевидным вещам, но и слепы к этой слепоте:Kahneman, Daniel. Thinking, Fast and Slow. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2011, 24.

Если честно, поводов для оптимизма я тут не вижу:“ Strategic Decisions: When Can You Trust Your Gut?” Интервью с Даниэлем Канеманом и Гари Клайном. McKinsey Quarterly, March 2010.

Непредвиденные ситуации во время космических миссий

Clervoy, Jean-François, private communication. Space travel: Wikipedia, s. v. “List of Spaceflight-Related Accidents and Incidents.” Accessed July 20, 2014.

Чек-листы

Gawande, Atul. The Checklist Manifesto: How to Get Things Right . New York: Metropolitan Books, 2009.

Haynes Alex B., et al. “ A Surgical Safety Checklist to Reduce Morbidity and Mortality in a Global Population.” New England Journal of Medicine360, no. 5 (2009): 491–99.

Kahneman, Daniel, Dan Lovallo, and Olivier Sibony. “The Big Idea: Before You Make That Big Decision.” Harvard Business Review, June 2011.

Корпоративные практики принятия решений

Heath, Chip, Richard P. Larrick, and Joshua Klayman. “Cognitive Repairs: How Organizational Practices Can Compensate for Individual Shortcomings.” Research in Organizational Behavior20, no. 1 (1998): 1–37.

Билл Миллер

McDonald, Ian. “Bill Miller Dishes on His Streak and His Strategy,” Wall Street Journal, January 6, 2005.

Mlodinow, Leonard. The Drunkard’s Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives. New York: Vintage, 2009.

Инвестиционные решения

Garbuio, Massimo, Dan Lovallo, and Olivier Sibony. “Evidence Doesn’t Argue for Itself: The Value of Disinterested Dialogue in Strategic Decision-Making.” Long Range Planning48, no. 6 (2015): 361–80.

Lovallo, Dan, and Olivier Sibony. “The Case for Behavioral Strategy.” McKinsey Quarterly, March 2010, 30–43.

Разное

“The Spectacular Rise and Fall of WeWork.”The Daily podcast, New York Times, November 18, 2019, featuring Masayoshi Son.

Мозговые штурмы

Diehl, Michael, and Wolfgang Stroebe. “Productivity Loss in Brainstorming Groups: Toward the Solution of a Riddle.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology53, no. 3 (1987): 497–509.

Keeney, Ralph L. “Value-Focused Brainstorming.” Decision Analysis9, no. 4 (2012): 303–13.

Sutton, Robert I., and Andrew Hargadon. “Brainstorming Groups in Context: Effectiveness in a Product Design Firm.” Administrative Science Quarterly41, no. 4 (1996): 685–718.

Когнитивное разнообразие

Reynolds, Alison, and David Lewis . “Teams Solve Problems Faster When They’re More Cognitively Diverse.” Harvard Business Review, March 2017, 6.

Roberto, Michael A. Why Great Leaders Don’t Take Yes for an Answer . Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Education, Inc./Prentice Hall, 2005.

Презентации

Bezos, Jeff. “Forum on Leadership: A Conversation with Jeff Bezos.”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xu6vFIKAUxk&=&feature=youtu.be&=&t=26m31s]. Письмо акционерам Amazon, [Апрель 2017]. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000119312518121161/d456916dex991.htm

Kaplan, Sarah. “Strategy and PowerPoint: An Inquiry into the Epistemic Culture and Machinery of Strategy Making.” Organization Science22, no. 2 (2011): 320–46.

Искреннее несогласие

Greitemeyer, Tobias, Stefan Schulz-Hardt, and Dieter Frey . “The Effects of Authentic and Contrived Dissent on Escalation of Commitment in Group Decision Making.” European Journal of Social Psychology39, no. 4 (June 2009): 639– 47.

Nemeth Charlan, Keith Brown, and John Rogers. “Devil’s Advocate Versus Authentic Dissent: Stimulating Quantity and Quality.” European Journal of Social Psychology31, no. 6 (2001): 707–20.

Множественные варианты

Heath, Chip, and Dan Heath. Decisive: How to Make Better Choices in Life and Work. New York: Crown Business, 2013.

Nutt, Paul C. “ The Identification of Solution Ideas During Organizational Decision Making.” Management Science39, no. 9 (1993): 1071–85.

«Виртуальное вскрытие»

Klein, Gary. “Performing a Project Premortem.” Harvard Business Review, September 2007.

Klein, Gary, Paul D. Sonkin, and Paul Johnson. “Rendering a Powerful Tool Flaccid: The Misuse of Premortems on Wall Street.” 2019. https://capitalallocatorspodcast.com/wp-content/uploads /Klein-Sonkin-and-Johnson‑2019-The-Misuse-of-Premortems-on-Wall-Street.pdf.

Услышать все мнения

Kim, W. Chan, and Renée Mauborgne. “Fair Process Managing in the Knowledge Economy.” Harvard Business Review, January 2003.

Sunstein, Cass R., and Reid Hastie. Wiser: Getting Beyond Groupthink to Make Better Decisions. Boston: Harvard Business Review Press, 2015.

Разное

“How We Do It: Three Executives Reflect on Strategic Decision Making.” Интервью с Дэном Ловалло и Оливье Сибони. McKinsey Quarterly, March 2010.

Schmidt, Eric. “Eric Schmidt on Business Culture, Technology, and Social Issues.” McKinsey Quarterly, May 2011, 1–8.

Майкл Бьюри

Lewis, Michael. The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine . New York: W. W. Norton, 2010.

Ценность разнообразных идей

Gino, Francesca. Rebel Talent: Why It Pays to Break the Rules at Work and in Life . New York: Dey Street Books, 2018.

Grant, Adam. Originals: How Non-Conformists Change the World . New York: Penguin, 2017.

Команда «красных» и структурированная аналитика

Chang, Welton, et al. “Restructuring Structured Analytic Techniques in Intelligence.” Intelligence and National Security33, no. 3 (2018): 337–56.

U. S. Government. “A Tradecraft Primer: Structured Analytic Techniques for Improving Intelligence Analysis. March 2009.” Center for the Study of Intelligence, CIA.gov, March 2009, 1–45. https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-

Мудрость толпы

Atanasov, Pavel, et al. “Distilling the Wisdom of Crowds: Prediction Markets vs. Prediction Polls.” Management Science 63, no. 3 (March 2017): 691–706.

Galton, Francis. “Vox Populi.” Nature 75 (1907): 450–51.

Mann, A. “The Power of Prediction Markets.” Nature 538 (October 2016): 308–10.

Surowiecki, James. The Wisdom of Crowds . New York: Doubleday, 2004.

Перепривязка

Lovallo, Dan, and Olivier Sibony. “Re-anchor your next budget meeting.” Harvard Business Review, March 2012.

Множественные аналогии

Lovallo, Dan, Carmina Clarke, and Colin F. Camerer. “Robust Analogizing and the Outside View: Two Empirical Tests of Case-Based Decision Making.” Strategic Management Journal33, no. 5 (2012): 496–512.

Sepp, Kalev I. “Best Practices in Counterinsurgency.” Military Review, May 2005.

Принятие стратегических решений – архитектура

Sibony, Olivier, Dan Lovallo, and Thomas C. Powell. “Behavioral Strategy and the Strategic Decision Architecture of the Firm.” California Management Review59, no. 3 (2017): 5–21.

Взгляд со стороны и прогнозирование по эталонному классу

De Reyck, Bert, et al. “ Optimism Bias Study: Recommended Adjustments to Optimism Bias Uplifts.” UK Department for Transport, n. d. Avail-able at https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system /uploads/attachment_data/file/576976/dft-optimism-bias-study.pdf.