Дэниел Ергин - Новая карта мира. Энергетические ресурсы, меняющийся климат и столкновение наций
- Название:Новая карта мира. Энергетические ресурсы, меняющийся климат и столкновение наций
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- Издательство:Интеллектуальная Литература
- Год:2021
- Город:Москва
- ISBN:9785907394469
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Дэниел Ергин - Новая карта мира. Энергетические ресурсы, меняющийся климат и столкновение наций краткое содержание
Автор показывает и подробно объясняет, как рождается новое будущее нашей планеты, и описывает те неизбежные проблемы, с которыми нам придется столкнуться в ближайшее время.
В центре его внимания – неожиданно начавшаяся сланцевая революция, которая меняет место Америки в мире, и роль энергетики в новой «холодной войне» между США с одной стороны и Россией и Китаем – с другой.
Эта трансформация глобальных энергетических рынков и мирового геополитического баланса ведет нас к «энергетическому повороту»: переходу от мира сегодняшнего – где основными являются ископаемые источники энергии – к миру, который все чаще использует возобновляемые энергоносители.
Новая карта мира. Энергетические ресурсы, меняющийся климат и столкновение наций - читать онлайн бесплатно ознакомительный отрывок
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135
«Xi Wants High-Tech Fighting Force,» China Daily, May 1, 2018; «Military expenditure by country,» SIPRI, 2019; «The U.S. – China Military Scorecard,» RAND Corporation, 2015; Elbridge Colby, «How to Win America’s Next War,» Foreign Policy, May 5, 2019 («wide variety»); Jane’s, «China’s Advanced Weapons Systems,» May 12, 2018. That report quotes a Chinese work, The Science of Military Strategy: «The war we need to prepare for… is a large-scale, and highly intensive local war from the sea» (p. 8).
136
Michael Gordon, «Marines Plan to Retool to Meet China Threat,» Wall Street Journal, March 22, 2020; David H. Berger, Force Design, United States Marine Corps, March 2020 («great power/peer level»), p. 2.
137
«President Xi Jinping’s Keynote Speech,» China Daily, May 14, 2017.
138
Interview with James Stavridis; Allison, Destined for War, p. 150 («tension»); Robert D. Kaplan, scholar of geography and geopolitics, describes the South China Sea as «now a principal node of global power politics, critical to the preservation of the worldwide balance of power.» Robert D. Kaplan, Asia’s Cauldron: The South China Sea and the End of a Stable Pacific (New York: Random House, 2015), p. 49.
139
Centre des Archives Diplomatiques du Ministère de l’Europe et des Affaires Étrangères, 32 CPCOM/79, ASIE1930-1940, CHINE, E513-0 sd/e 749.
140
Monique Chemillier-Gendreau, Sovereignty over the Paracel and Spratly Islands (Cambridge, MA: Kluwer Law International, 2000), pp. 226-27 («quirks of geology»); Clive Schofield and Ian Storey, The South China Sea Dispute: Increasing Stakes and Rising Tension (Washington, D.C.: Jamestown Foundation: 2009), p. 11 («Dangerous Ground»); David Hancox and Victor Prescott, A Geographical Description of the Spratly Islands and an Account of Hydrographic Surveys Amongst Those Islands, International Boundaries Research Unit, Maritime Briefing, vol. 1, no. 6 (1995), p. 38 («mariner’s… guarantee»); Stein Tonnesson, «The South China Sea in the Age of European Decline,» Modern Asian Studies 40 (2006), pp. 1-57, 3 («Europe-dominated waters»).
141
Centre des Archives Diplomatiques du Ministère de l’Europe et des Affaires Étrangères, 32 CPCOM/79, ASIE1930-1940, CHINE, E513-0 sd/e 749.
142
«How Much Trade Transits the South China Sea?» China Power, Project CSIS, October 10, 2019 (world trade); Schofield and Storey, South China Sea Dispute, p. 9 (tuna); Alan Dupont, «Maritime Disputes in the South China Sea: ASEAN’s Dilemma,» Perspectives on the South China Sea, ed. Murray Hiebert, Phuong Nguyen, and Gregory Poling (Washington, D.C.: CSIS, 2014), p. 46 («strategic commodity»); Ian Storey, «Disputes in the South China Sea: Southeast Asia’s Troubled Waters,» Politique Étrangère 79, no. 3 (2014), p. 11 («entire world»).
143
Chemillier-Gendreau, Sovereignty over the Paracel and Spratly, pp. 205-6, 210-11 («megalomania»); Bill Hayton, The South China Sea: The Struggle for Power in Asia (New Haven Yale University Press, 2014), pp. 54-55 («navy is weak»).
144
State Council, White Paper on South China Sea, July 2016, english.www.gov.cn/state_council/ministries/2016/07/13/content_281475392503075.htm(«9 Islets»); Henry Kissinger, On China (New York: Penguin, 2011); Hayton, The South China Sea, p. 55 («mapmakers»). On the «unequal treaties,» Denis Twitchett and John K. Fairbank, The Cambridge History of China, vol. 10, Late Ch’ing, 1800-1911, Part 1 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1978), chapter 5.
145
State Council, White Paper on South China Sea, http://english.www.gov.cn/state_council/ministries/2016/07/13/content_281475392503075.htm(«reviewed and approved»); Peter A. Dutton, «Through a Chinese Lens,» Proceedings of the U.S. Naval Institute 136, no. 4 (April 2010), p. 25; Zou Keyuan, «The Chinese Traditional Maritime Boundary Line in the South China Sea and Its Legal Consequences for the Resolution of the Dispute over the Spratly Islands,» International Journal of Maritime and Coastal Law 14, no. 1 (1999), p. 33; Hayton, The South China Sea, p. 56 («Loving the nation»); William Callahan, «The Cartography of National Humiliation and the Emergence of China’s Geobody,» Public Culture vol. 21, issue 1, Winter 2009, p. 154 («common people»); «Spratlys – Spratly Islands (Nansha Islands) of China,» www.spratlys.org/islands-names/1935.htm(chronology of maps). On Bai Meichu and the Journal of Geographical Studies, see Pei-yin Lin and Weipin Tsai, Print, Profit, and Perception: Ideas, Information and Knowledge in Chinese Societies, 1895-1949 (Leiden: Brill, 2014), pp. 105-11, and Brian Moloughney and Peter Zarrow, eds., Transforming Society: The Making of a Modern Academic Discipline in Twentieth Century China (Hong Kong: Chinese University of Hong Kong Press, 2011), pp. 310-17, 331-32 (more patriotic).
146
Tonnesson, «The South China Sea in the Age of European Decline,» p. 29.
147
Philip Short, Mao: A Life (New York: Henry Holt, 2000), pp. 418-420 («stood up»); Zheng Wang, «The Nine-Dashed Line: ‘Engraved in our Hearts’,» The Diplomat, August 25, 2014.
148
Position Paper of the Government of the People’s Republic of China on the Matter of Jurisdiction in the South Sea Arbitration Initiated by the Republic of the Philippines, December 7, 2014.
149
Zhiguo Gao and Bing Bing Jia, «The Nine-Dash Line in the South China Sea: History, Status, and Implications,» American Journal of International Law 107, no. 1 (January 2013), p. 101; Bill Hayton, The South China Sea: The Struggle for Power in Asia (New Haven Yale University Press, 2014), pp. 24-26; Florian Dupuy and Pierre-Marie Dupuy, «A Legal Analysis of China’s Historic Rights Claim in the South China,» American Journal of International Law 107, no. 1 (January 2013), pp. 124, 136-41; Robert Beckman, «The UN Convention of the Law of the Sea and the Maritime Disputes in the South China Sea,» American Journal of International Law 107, no. 1 (January 2013), p. 143; U.S. Department of State, «Limits in the Seas: Maritime Claims in the South China Sea,» December 5, 2014, p. 9.
150
The Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at CSIS in Washington for information and maps on the South China Sea: https://amti.csis.organd; https://amti.csis.org/island-tracker/china/; David E. Sanger and Rick Gladstone, «Piling Sand in a Disputed Sea,» New York Times, April 8, 2015 («facts on the water»).
151
U.S. Department of State, «Limits in the Seas,» pp. 16, 19; Zhiguo Gao and Bing Bing Jia, «The Nine-Dash Line in the South China Sea,» p. 102; Dupuy and Dupuy, «A Legal Analysis of China’s Historic Rights Claim,» p. 139.
152
Interview with Robert Beckman.
153
Jeff Himmelman, «A Game of Shark and Minnow,» New York Times Magazine, October 27, 2013; Ben Blanchard, «Duterte Aligns Philippines,» Reuters, October 20, 2016. China’s historical chronology in State Council, People’s Republic of China, «China Adheres to the Position of Settling Through Negotiation the Relevant Disputes Between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea,» July 2016; State Council, White Paper on South China Sea, July 2016, http://english.www.gov.cn/state_council/ministries/2016/07/13/content_281475392503075.htm(illegal claim).
154
Interviews with Robert Beckman and Antonio Carpio.
155
Shih Hsiu-Chuan, «Ma Addresses Nation’s Role in S China Sea,» Taipei Times, September 2, 2014; «Joining the Dashes,» The Economist, October 4, 2014.
156
Ezra Vogel, Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2013); Richard Baum, Burying Mao: Chinese Politics in the Age of Deng Xiaoping (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1994); Daniel Yergin and Joseph Stanislaw, The Commanding Heights: The Battle for the World Economy (New York: Touchstone, 2002), p. 197.
157
Bill Hayton, The South China Sea: The Struggle for Power in Asia (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2014), pp. 28, 121 («not wise enough»).
158
Carlyle A. Thayer, «Recent Developments in the South China Sea: Implications for Peace, Stability, and Cooperation in the Region,» South China Sea Studies, March 24, 2011, p. 3; U.S. Department of State, «Limits in the Seas»; Tran Truong Thuy and Le Thuy Trang, Power, Law, and Maritime Order in the South China Sea (Lanham: Lexington Books, 2015), pp. 103-15.
159
Interviews; Hillary Rodham Clinton, Hard Choices (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2014), p. 79; Edward Wong, «Chinese Military Seeks to Extend Its Naval Power,» New York Times, July 23, 2010.
160
Interview with Tommy Koh.
161
Louise Levathes, When China Ruled the Seas: The Treasure Fleet of the Dragon Throne, 1405-1433 (New York: Oxford University Press, 1994), pp. 170, 88, 20; Geoff Wade, «The Zheng He Voyages: A Reassessment,» Journal of the Malaysian Branch of the Royal Asiatic Society 78, no. 1 (2005), pp. 37-58; Valerie Hansen, The Open Empire: A History of China to 1800 (New York: Norton, 2015), pp. 352-60.
162
Michael Fabey, Crashback: The Power Clash Between the U.S. and China in the Pacific (New York: Scribner, 2017), p. 65; Joseph Kahn, «China Has an Ancient Mariner to Tell You About,» New York Times, July 20, 2005.
163
Kurt Campbell, The Pivot: The Future of American Statecraft in Asia (New York: Twelve, 2016), pp. 185-87; Patrick E. Tyler, «China Warns U.S. to Keep Away from Taiwan Strait,» New York Times, March 18, 1996.
164
Peng Yining, «Sea Change,» China Daily, September 24, 2014; Jeremy Page, «As China Expands Its Navy,» Wall Street Journal, March 30, 2015.
165
Henry Kissinger, On China (New York: Penguin, 2011), pp. 514-27.
166
H. C. Ling, The Petroleum Industry of the People’s Republic of China (Palo Alto, CA: Hoover Institution Press, 1975).
167
Far Eastern Economic Review, February 2004 («Malacca Dilemma»).
168
Xizhou Zhou, «Battle for the Blue Skies: How China’s Anti-Smog Campaign Triggered a Natural Gas Crisis and a Switch to ‘Clean Coal,’ «IHS Markit, March 15, 2018; Jenny Yang and Xiaomin Liu, «The Battle for the Blue Sky Continues,» IHS Markit, July 9, 2018.
169
«In High Seas, China Moves Unilaterally,» New York Times, May 8, 2014; John Ruwitch and Nguyen Phuong Ling, «Chinese Oil Rig Moved Away,» Reuters, July 16, 2014 («bowed»); «China, Vietnam to Address Maritime Disputes Without Using ‘Megaphone Diplomacy’: Xinhua,» Reuters, December 27, 2014; Khanh Vu, «Chinese Ship Leaves Vietnam’s Waters,» Reuters, October 24, 2019; Carl Thayer, «A Difficult Summer in the South China Sea,» The Diplomat, November 2019.
170
Dylan Mair and Rachel Calvert, «Energy Drivers for Offshore Cooperation,» revised 2019, IHS Markit, unpublished; U.S. Energy Information Administration, «South China Sea,» February 7, 2013; U.S. EIA, «Contested Areas of South China Sea Likely Have Few Conventional Oil and Gas Resources,» April 3, 2013; Lee Hsien Loong, «The Endangered Asian Century,» Foreign Affairs, July-August 2020, p. 59.
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