Майкл Шелленбергер - Конца света не будет. Почему экологический алармизм причиняет нам вред

The Future of Food and Agriculture: Alternative Pathways to 2050, 76–77.

“IPCC, “Mitigation Pathways Compatible with 1.5°C in the Context of Sustainable Development”, In: Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report. 2018. Nordhaus, William. “Projections and Uncertainties About Climate Change in an Era of Minimal Climate Policies.” 2018. doi:10.3386/w22933.41. Though some experts call the country “Democratic Republic of the Congo,” in part because there is a different, smaller nation called “Republic of the Congo,” many in the DRC refer to it simply as “the Congo.”

For more information on the Great African War and its impact on the Congo, see David Van Reybrouck, Congo: The Epic History of a People (New York: HarperCollins, 2010) and Gérard Prunier, Africa’s World Wars: Congo, the Rwandan Genocide, and the Making of a Continental Catastrophe (Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2010), 338.

“Democratic Republic of the Congo Travel Advisory,” U.S. Department of State, Bureau of Consular Affairs, January 2, 2020, https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/traveladvisories/democratic-republic-of-the-congo-travel-advisory.html.

“Access to Electricity (% of Population): Congo, Rep., Congo, Dem. Rep,” World Bank Group, https://data.worldbank.org.

Africa Energy Outlook: A Focus on Energy Prospects in Sub-Saharan Africa(Paris: International Energy Agency, 2014), 32.

Pauline Bax and Williams Clowes, “Three Gorges Has Nothing on ChinaBacked Dam to Power Africa,” Bloomberg, August 5, 2019, https://www.bloomberg.com.

Katharine J. Mach, Caroline M. Kraan, W. Neil Adger et al., “Climate as a Risk Factor for Armed Conflict,” Nature 571 (2019): 193–97, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1300-6.

“Globally, medium to high levels of land degradation are related to increased conflict, as are very high levels of water scarcity, but the relative increases in risk are quite small. Increasing levels of land degradation increase the risk of conflict from a baseline of 1 percent to between 2–4 percent.” Hedrik Urdal, “People vs. Malthus: Population Pressure, Environmental Degradation and Armed Conflict Revisited,” Journal of Peace Research 42 (2005): 417–34, https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343305054089. Clionadh Raleigh and Henrik Urdal, “Climate Change, Demography, Environmental Degradation and Armed Conflict,” Environmental Change and Security Programme 13 (2008–2009): 27–33, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2007.06.005.

Michael Oppenheimer, Bruce C. Glavovic, Jochen Hinkel et al., “Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low-Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities,” in IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2019, https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/3/2019/11/08_SROCC_Ch04_FINAL.pdf, 321–445.

Clionadh Raleigh and Henrik Urdal, “Climate Change, Demography, Environmental Degradation and Armed Conflict,” Environmental Change and Security Programme 13 (2008–2009): 27–33, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2007.06.005.

David Van Reybrouk, Congo: An Epic History of a People (New York: HarperCollins, 2014).

World Bank, “GDP (current US$)-Congo, Dem. Rep.,” World Bank, accessed January 15, 2020, https://data.worldbank.org.

Ibid.

Peter Jones and David Smith, “UN Report on Rwanda Fuelling Congo Conflict ‘Blocked by US,’ ” The Guardian, June 20, 2012, https://www.theguardian.com.

Tom Wilson, David Blood, and David Pilling, “Congo Voting Data Reveal Huge Fraud in Poll to Replace Kabila,” Financial Times, January 15, 2019, https://www.ft.com.

Myles Allen and Sarah Lunnon, interviewed by Emma Barrett, Newsnight, BBC, aired October 10, 2019, on BBC.

Sarah Lunnon (Extinction Rebellion spokesperson) in discussion with the author, November 26, 2019.

Gaia Vince, “The Heat Is On over the Climate Crisis. Only Radical Measures Will Work,” The Guardian, May 18, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com.

Sarah Lunnon (Extinction Rebellion spokesperson) in discussion with the author, November 26, 2019.

Johan Rockström (director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) in discussion with the author, November 27, 2019.

Johan Rockström (director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) in discussion with the author, November 27, 2019.

Johan Rockström (director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) in discussion with the author, November 27, 2019.

Johan Rockström (director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) in discussion with the author, November 27, 2019.

Hans van Meijl et al., “Comparing impacts of climate change and mitigation on global agriculture by 2050,” Environmental Research Letters 13, no. 6 (2018), https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748–9326/aabdc4/pdf.

“This occurs because… land-based mitigation leads to less land availability for food production, potentially lower food supply, and therefore food price increases.” Cheikh Mbow et al., “Chapter Five: Food Security,” in V. Masson-Delmotte et al., eds., Climate Change and Land: An IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems (IPCC, 2019), https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2019/11/SRCCL-Full-Report-Compiled-191128.pdf.

FAO, The Future of Food and Agriculture – Alternative Pathways to 2050 (Rome: United Nations, 2018), accessed December 16, 2019, http://www.fao.org/global-perspectives-studies/food-agriculture-projections-to-2050/en.

Roger Pielke, Jr., “I Am Under Investigation,” The Climate Fix (blog), February 25, 2015, https://theclimatefix.wordpress.com/2015/02/25/i-am-under-investigation.

Roger Pielke, Jr., The Climate Fix: What Scientists and Politicians Won’t Tell You About Global Warming (New York: Basic Books, 2011), 162.

Laurens M. Bouwer, Ryan P. Crompton, Eberhard Faust et al., “Confronting Disaster Losses,” Science 318 (December 2007): 753, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/5871449_Disaster_management_Confronting_disaster_losses. Peter Höppe and Roger Pielke, Jr., eds., “Workshop on Climate Change and Disaster Losses: Understanding and Attributing Trends and Projections,” May 25-26, 2006, Hohenkammer, Germany, https://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/research_areas/sparc/research/projects/extreme_events/munich_workshop/ccdl_workshop_brochure.pdf.

Roger Pielke, Jr., The Climate Fix: What Scientists and Politicians Won’t Tell You About Global Warming, 171.

Jessica Weinkle, Chris Landsea, Douglas Collins, et al., “Normalized Hurricane Damage in the Continental United States 1900–2017,” Nature Sustainability 1 (2018): 808–813, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-018-0165–2; Roger Pielke, Jr., The Climate Fix: What Scientists and Politicians Won’t Tell You About Global Warming, 171.

Roger Pielke, Jr., The Climate Fix: What Scientists and Politicians Won’t Tell You About Global Warming, 171.

Pielke cited two studies for this claim: Thomas Knutson, Suzana J. Camargo, Johnny C. L. Chan et al., “Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part I: Detection and Attribution,” American Meteorological Society, October 2019, https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0189.1, and “2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season,” National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr. Roger Pielke, Jr., “When Is Climate Change Just Weather? What Hurricane Dorian Coverage Mixes Up, on Purpose,” Forbes, September 4, 2019, https://www.forbes.com.

Roger Pielke, Jr., The Climate Fix: What Scientists and Politicians Won’t Tell You About Global Warming, 170–172.

Roger Pielke, Jr., “My Unhappy Life as a Climate Heretic,” Wall Street Journal, December 2, 2016, https://www.wsj.com.

Christopher B. Field, Vicente Barros, Thomas F. Stocker et al., eds., Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation: Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/SREX_Full_Report-1.pdf, 9.

Roger Pielke, Jr., The Climate Fix: What Scientists and Politicians Won’t Tell You About Global Warming, 175.

Roger Pielke, Jr., “Disasters Cost More than Ever – but Not Because of Climate Change,” FiveThirtyEight, March 19, 2014, https://fivethirtyeight.com.

Roger Pielke, Jr., The Climate Fix: What Scientists and Politicians Won’t Tell You About Global Warming, 174.

Roger Pielke, Jr., “Disasters Cost More than Ever – but Not Because of Climate Change.”

Roger Pielke, Jr., “Disasters Cost More than Ever – but Not Because of Climate Change.”

Robinson Meyer, “The Oceans We Know Won’t Survive Climate Change,” Atlantic, September 25, 2019, https://www.theatlantic.com.

Michael Oppenheimer (IPCC author) in discussion with the author, December 26, 2019.

Michael Oppenheimer (IPCC author) in discussion with the author, December 26, 2019.

Michael Oppenheimer (IPCC author) in discussion with the author, December 26, 2019.

Michael Oppenheimer (IPCC author) in discussion with the author, December 26, 2019.

Michael Oppenheimer (IPCC author) in discussion with the author, December 26, 2019.

“Project Information Document (PID) Concept Stage: DRC – Growth with Governance in the Mineral Sector,” Report no. AB3834, World Bank, March 24, 2009, http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/341011468234300132/pdf/Project0Inform1cument1Concept0Stage.pdf. Ernest Mpararo, “Democratic Republic of the Congo,” Transparency International, 2018, https://www.transparency.org/country/COD. For an overview of Congo’s history and the role of colonialism and decolonization, see Van Reybrouck, Congo. Congo ranks 161st out of 180 (the highest) in terms of perceived corruption.

“Top 20 Deadliest California Wildfires,” California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, September 27, 2019, https://www.fire.ca.gov/media/5512/top20_deadliest.pdf.