Джулия Галеф - Мышление разведчика. Почему одни люди видят все как есть и принимают правильные решения, а другие — заблуждаются

David France. How to Survive a Plague: The Inside Story of How Citizens and Science Tamed AIDS (New York: Knopf Doubleday Publishing Group, 2016), 478.

Douglas LaBier. «Why Self-Deception Can Be Healthy for You», Psychology Today, February 18, 2013, https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-new-resilience/201302/why-self-deception-can-be-healthy-you.

Joseph T. Hallinan. Kidding Ourselves: The Hidden Power of Self-Deception (New York: Crown, 2014).

Stephanie Bucklin. «Depressed People See the World More Realistically — And Happy People Just Might Be Slightly Delusional», Vice, June 22, 2017, https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/8x9j3k/depressed-people-see-the-world-more-realistically.

J. D. Brown. «Evaluations of Self and Others: Self-Enhancement Biases in Social Judgments», Social Cognition 4, no. 4 (1986): 353–376, http://dx.doi.org/10.1521/soco.1986.4.4.353.

На самом деле это правда: если люди в среднем думают, что превосходят окружающих, значит, по крайней мере часть из них заблуждается. В конце концов, реальный мир не похож на вымышленный городок Лейк-Вобегон {37} , где «все дети лучше среднего». Но есть также основания предположить, что многие (а может, и большинство) из тех, кто считает, что превосходит окружающих, в самом деле превосходят их по тому или иному параметру, а значит, не впадают в самообман. И вполне возможно, что именно присутствием этих людей объясняется повышенная степень счастья и довольства собой, наблюдаемая в выборке.

Shelley Taylor and Jonathon Brown. «Illusion and Well-being: A Social Psychological Perspective on Mental Health», Psychological Bulletin 103, № 2 (1988): 193–210, doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.103.2.193.

Ruben Gur and Harold Sackeim. «Lying to Ourselves», interview by Robert Krulwich, Radiolab, WNYC studios, March 10, 2008, https://www.wnycstudios.org/podcasts/radiolab/segments/91618-lying-to-ourselves.

Анкета с вопросами на самообман впервые появилась в работе: R. C. Gur and H. A. Sackeim. Self-deception: A Concept in Search of a Phenomenon, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 37 (1979): 147–169. Популярные книги, такие как Robin Hanson & Kevin Simler, The Elephant in the Brain, и популярные подкасты, такие как Radiolab, ссылаются на нее в доказательство эффектов самообмана.

Самое раннее известное упоминание об этих словах Форда относится, по-видимому, к выпуску Reader’s Digest за 1947 год, где точная цитата не приведена. (The Reader’s Digest, September 1947, 64; via Garson O’Toole. «Whether You Believe You Can Do a Thing or Not, You Are Right», Quote Investigator, February 3, 2015, https://quoteinvestigator.com/2015/02/03/you-can/.)

Источник цитаты нигде не указывается.

Jonathan Fields. «Odds Are for Suckers», blog post, http://www.jonathanfields.com/odds-are-for-suckers/.

Cris Nikolov. «10 Lies You Will Hear Before You Chase Your Dreams», MotivationGrid, December 14, 2013, https://motivationgrid.com/lies-you-will-hear-pursue-dreams/.

Victor Ng. The Executive Warrior: 40 Powerful Questions to Develop Mental Toughness for Career Success (Singapore: Marshall Cavendish International, 2018).

Michael Macri. «9 Disciplines of Every Successful Entrepreneur», Fearless Motivation, January 21, 2018, https://www.fearlessmotivation.com/2018/01/21/9-disciplines-of-every-successful-entrepreneur/.

William James. «The Will to Believe», https://www.gutenberg.org/files/26659/26659-h/26659-h.htm.

Jeff Lunden. «Equity at 100: More Than Just a Broadway Baby», Weekend Edition Saturday, NPR, May 25, 2013, https://www.npr.org/2013/05/25/186492136/equity-at-100-more-than-just-a-broadway-baby.

Shellye Archambeau. «Take Bigger Risks», interview by Reid Hoffman, Masters of Scale, podcast, https://mastersofscale.com/shellye-archambeau-take-bigger-risks/.

Norm Brodsky. «Entrepreneurs: Leash Your Optimism», Inc., December 2011, https://www.inc.com/magazine/201112/norm-brodsky-on-entrepreneurs-as-perennial-optimists.html.

Можно утверждать, что Бродски должен был бы предвидеть угрозу своему бизнесу со стороны факсов. По данным, приведенным в статье M. David Stone, PC to Paper: Fax Grows Up, PC Magazine, April 11, 1989, в предшествующие несколько лет объем продаж факсов удваивался ежегодно.

Ben Horowitz. The Hard Thing About Hard Things (New York: HarperCollins, 2014). Издание на русском языке: Хоровиц Бен. Сложные решения. Как управлять бизнесом, когда нет простых решений.М.: Манн, Иванов и Фербер, 2021.

Elon Musk. «Fast Cars and Rocket Ships», interview by Scott Pelley, 60 Minutes, March 30, 2014, on CBS, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tesla-and-spacex-elon-musks-industrial-empire/.

Catherine Clifford. «Elon Musk Always Thought SpaceX Would ‘Fail’ and He’d Lose His Paypal Millions», CNBC.com, March 6, 2019, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/06/elon-musk-on-spacex-i-always-thought-we-would-fail.html.

Rory Cellan-Jones. «Tesla Chief Elon Musk Says Apple Is Making an Electric Car», BBC, January 11, 2016, https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-35280633.

Elon Musk. «Fast Cars and Rocket Ships».

Elon Musk and Sam Altman. «Elon Musk on How to Build the Future», Y-Combinator (blog), September 15, 2016, https://blog.ycombinator.com/elon-musk-on-how-to-build-the-future/.

Paul Hoynes. «‘Random Variation’ Helps Trevor Bauer, Cleveland Indians Beat Houston Astros», Cleveland.com, April 27, 2017, https://www.cleveland.com/tribe/2017/04/random_variation_helps_trevor.html.

Alex Hooper. «Trevor Bauer’s Random Variation Downs Twins Again», CBS Cleveland, May 14, 2017, https://cleveland.cbslocal.com/2017/05/14/trevor-bauers-random-variation-downs-twins-again/.

Merritt Rohlfing. «Trevor Bauer’s Homers Have Disappeared», SB Nation (blog), May 26, 2018, https://bit.ly/2RCg8Lb.

Zack Meisel. «Trevor Bauer Continues to Wonder When Lady Luck Will Befriend Him: Zack Meisel’s Musings», Cleveland.com, June 2017, https://www.cleveland.com/tribe/2017/06/cleveland_indians_minnesota_tw_138.html.

«Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos and Brother Mark Give a Rare Interview About Growing Up and Secrets to Success». Posted by Summit, November 14, 2017. YouTube, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hq89wYzOjfs.

Lisa Calhoun. «When Elon Musk Is Afraid, This Is How He Handles It», Inc., September 20, 2016, https://www.inc.com/lisa-calhoun/elon-musk-says-he-feels-fear-strongly-then-makes-this-move.html.

Nate Soares. «Come to Your Terms», Minding Our Way, October 26, 2015, http://mindingourway.com/come-to-your-terms/.

«Amazon’s Source», Time, December 27, 1999.

«Jeff Bezos in 1999 on Amazon’s Plans Before the Dotcom Crash», CNBC, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GltlJO56S1g.

Eugene Kim. «Jeff Bezos to Employees: ‘One Day, Amazon Will Fail’ But Our Job Is to Delay It as Long as Possible», CNBC, November 15, 2018, https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/15/bezos-tells-employees-one-day-amazon-will-fail-and-to-stay-hungry.html.

Jason Nazar. «The 21 Principles of Persuasion», Forbes, March 26, 2013, https://www.forbes.com/sites/jasonnazar/2013/03/26/the-21-principles-of-persuasion/.

Mareo McCracken. «6 Simple Steps to Start Believing in Yourself (They’ll Make You a Better Leader)», Inc., February 5, 2018, https://www.inc.com/mareo-mccracken/having-trouble-believing-in-yourself-that-means-your-leadership-is-suffering.html.

Ian Dunt. «Remain Should Push for an Election», politics.co.uk, October 24, 2019, https://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/10/24/remain-should-push-for-an-election.

Claude-Anne Lopez. Mon Cher Papa: Franklin and the Ladies of Paris (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1966).

Benjamin Franklin. The Autobiography of Benjamin Franklin (New York: Henry Holt and Company, 1916), via https://www.gutenberg.org/files/20203/20203-h/20203-h.htm.

Benjamin Franklin. The Autobiography of Benjamin Franklin (New York: Henry Holt and Company, 1916), via https://www.gutenberg.org/files/20203/20203-h/20203-h.htm.

Maunsell B. Field. Memories of Many Men and of Some Women: Being Personal Recollections of Emperors, Kings, Queens, Princes, Presidents, Statesmen, Authors, and Artists, at Home and Abroad, During the Last Thirty Years (London: Sampson Low, Marston, Low & Searle, 1874), 280.

C. Anderson et al. «A Status-Enhancement Account of Overconfidence», Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 103, № 4 (2012): 718–735, https://doi.org/10.1037/a0029395.

M. B. Walker. «The Relative Importance of Verbal and Nonverbal Cues in the Expression of Confidence», Australian Journal of Psychology 29, № 1 (1977): 45–57, doi:10.1080/00049537708258726.

Brad Stone. The Everything Store: Jeff Bezos and the Age of Amazon (New York: Little, Brown & Company, 2013).

D. C. Blanch et al. «Is It Good to Express Uncertainty to a Patient? Correlates and Consequences for Medical Students in a Standardized Patient Visit», Patient Education and Counseling 76, №. 3 (2009): 302, doi:10.1016/j.pec.2009.06.002.

E. P. Parsons et al. «Reassurance Through Surveillance in the Face of Clinical Uncertainty: The Experience of Women at Risk of Familial Breast Cancer», Health Expectations 3, № 4 (2000): 263–273, doi:10.1046/j.1369–6513.2000.00097.x.