Вали Наср - Необязательная страна

135Kateria Azarova and Anissa Naouai, «Step by Step: Russia’s Plan to Bring Iran Back for Good», RT News, August 17, 2011. http://rt.com/politics/iran-approves-russian-nuclear/.

136«Iran Will Consider Russia’s Nuclear Plan», Press TV, January 28, 2012, http://presstv.com/detail/223505.html.

137Joshua Hersh, «Iran Assassination Plot: Skeptics Question Motive and Method of an ‘Amateur Hour’ Scheme», Huffington Post, October 12, 2011, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/12/iran-assassination-plot-skeptics_n_1008068.html.

138Susanne Maloney, «Obama’s Counterproductive New Iran Sanctions», Foreign Affairs, January 5, 2012. http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/137011/suzanne-maloney/obamas-counterproductive-new-iran-sanctions.

139Высказывание бывшего иранского дипломата, цит. по: Steve Inskeep, «Iran’s Decider: Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei», National Public Radio, February 23, 2012, http://www.npr.org/2012/02/23/147277389/meet-irans-decider-supreme-leader-khamenei.

140«Text of Obama’s Speech to AIPAC», Associated Press, March 4, 2012, http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5ioftJOjiGfowjv-eLtNgGAVnxphA?docId=1d833bbc98324e338a99fbeccb38b763.

141Ollie Heinonen, «The 20 Percent Solution», Foreign Policy, January 11, 2012, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/01/11/the_20_percent_soluyion.

142Richard Haas, «Enough Is Enough», Newsweek, January 22, 2010, http://www.thedailybeast.com/nesweek/2010/01/21/enough-is-enough.html.

143См.: Fareed Zakaria, «How History Could Deter Iranian Aggression», Washington Post, February 15, 2012, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/history-could-be-a-deterrent-to-iranian-aggression/2012/02/15/gIQA6UVcGR_story.html, а также «Deterring Iran Is Best Option», Washington Post, March 14 , 2012, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/deterring-iran-is-the-best-option/2012/03/14/gIQA0Y9mCS_story.html; Bruce Riedel, «Iran Is Not an Existential Threat», thedailynewsegypt.com, January 20, 2012, http://thedailynewsegypt.com/global-views/iran-is-not-an-existential-threat.html; Maloney, «How to Contain a Nuclear Iran». Более ранние повторы этих дебатов освещены у: David Sanger, «Debate Grows on Nuclear Containment of Iran», New York Times, March 13, 2010, http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/14/weekinreview/14sanger.html. О том, как может выглядеть сдерживание, см.: James Lindsay and Ray Takeyh, «After Iran Gets the Bomb: Containment and Its Complications», Foreign Affairs , March/April2010, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/66032/james-m-lindsay-and-ray-takeyh/after-iran-gets-the-bomb.

144«Vice President Biden: Iraq Could Be One of the Great Achievements of This Administration», ABC News, February 11, 2011, http://abcnres.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/02/vice-president-biden-iraq-could-be-one-of-the-great-achievements-of-this-administration/.

145Kenneth Pollock, «Maliki Dilemma», National Interest, February 1, 2012, http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/the-maliki-dilemma-6418.

146Toby Dodge, «The Resistible Rise of Nuri Al-Maliki», Opendemocracy, March 22, 2012, http://www.opendemocracy.net/toby-dodge/resistible-rise-of-nuri-al-maliki.

147Liz Sly, «U.S. Policy on Iraq Questioned as Influence Wanes, Maliki Consolidates Power», Washington Post, April 8, 2012, http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/us-policy-on-iraq-questioned-as-influence-wanes/2012/04/08/gIQAHEAU4S_story.html?hpid=z1.

148Joseph R. Biden and Leslie H. Gelb, «Unity Through Autonomy in Iraq», New York Times, May 1, 2006, http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/01/opinion/01biden.html?pagewanted=all.

149Joseph R. Biden, «A Plan to Hold Iraq Together», Washington Post, August 24, 2006, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/23/AR2006082301419.html; «Biden Vows to Fight Troop Surge in Iraq», CBS News, February 11, 2009, http://www.cbsnews.com/2100—250_162—2299237.html.

150Michael R. Gordon and Bernard E. Trainor, The Endgame: The Inside Story of the Struggle for Iraq, from George W. Bush to Barack Obama (New York: Pantheon, 2012), pp. 628—50.

151Michael R. Gordon, «Failed Efforts and Challenges of America’s Last Months in Iraq», New York Times, September23, 2012, p. A1.

152Martin S. Indyk, Kenneth G. Lieberthal, and Michael E. O’Hanlon, Bending History: Barack Obama’s Foreign Policy (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 2012).

153Gordon and Trainor, The Endgame, p. 657.

154Sly, «U.S. Policy on Iraq Questioned».

155Serena Chaudhry, «Feeling Marginalized, Some Iraq Sunnis Eye Autonomy», Reuters. January 1, 2012, http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/01/us-iraq-politics-sunnis-idUSTRE80005620120101.

156«Kurdish Leader Accuses Iraqi PM of Leading Country to ‘Dictatorship’» Al-Arabiya News, March 21, 2012, http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2012/03/21/202063.html.

157Salah Nasrawi, «2011: Why Did Iraq Miss the Arab Spring?» Ahram Online, December 31, 2011, http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/2/8/30638/World/Region/-Why-did-Iraq-miss-the-Arab-Spring.aspx.

158Vali Nasr, The Shia Revival: How Conflicts Within Islam Will Shape the Future (New York: Norton, 2006).

159Vali Nasr, «When Shiites Rise», Foreign Affairs, July/August 2006, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/61733/vali-nasr/when-the-shiits-rise.

160David Laitin, Hegemony and Culture: Politics and Religious Change Among the Yoruba (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1986).

161Существует множество научных исследований, объясняющих отсутствие межобщинного насилия, когда государства могут обосновать власть меньшинства, что затрудняет возможность бунта. Donald Horovitz, Ethnic Groups in Conflict (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1987); Roger Peterson, Understanding Ethnic Violence (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2002); Stuart Kaufman, Modern Hatreds: The Symbolic Politics of Ethnic War (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2001).

162Vali Nasr, «Regional Implications of Shia Revival in Iraq», Washington Quarterly 27, no. 3 (Summer 2004): 7—24.

163Vali Nasr, «Syria After the Fall», New York Times, July 29, 2012, p. SR4; Fouad Ajami, The Syrian Rebellion (Stanford, CA, Hoover Institution Press, 2012), pp. 111—34.

164О важности этих гражданских связей см.: Ashutosh Varshney, Ethnic Conflict and Civic Life: Hindus and Muslims in India (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2002).

165О том, как политический интерес мог нарушить политические взгляды на самоидентификацию и превратить его в насилие, см.: Paul R. Brass, The Production of Hindu-Muslim Violence in Contemporary India (Seattle: University of Washington Press, 2011).

166Steven Wilkinson, Votes and Violence: Electoral Competition and Ethnic Riots in India (New York: Cambridge University, 2004).

167Benjamin Miller, States, Nations, and Great Powers: The Sources of Regional War and Peace (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007).

168Niall Fergusson, The War of the World (new York: Penguin, 2006), pp. 28–30, 255.

169Vali Nasr, «If the Arab Spring Turns Ugly», New York Times, August 27, 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/28/opinion/sunday/the-dangers-lurking-in-the-arab-spring.html?pagewanted=all.

170Ayad Allawi, «How the U.S. and the World Can Help Iraq», Washington Post, August 31, 2011, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/how-the-us-and-world-can-help-iraq/2011/08/30/gIQAIPZxsJ_story.html.

171Jim Lobe, «US Standing Plunges Across the Arab World», Al-Jazeera, July 14, 2011, http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/featutes/2011/07/2011714413787827.html.

172Martin S. Indyk, Kenneth G. Lieberthal, and Michael E. O’Hanlon, Bending History: Barack Obama’s Foreign Policy (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 2012), p. 112.

173Там же. С. 121.

174Там же. С. 122.

175Там же.

176Dan Ephron, «The Wrath of Mahmoud Abbas», Daily Beast, April 24, 2011. http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/04/25/mahmoud-abbas-interview-palestinian-leader-frustration-with-obama.html.

177Jim Lobe, «US Standing Plunges Across the Arab World», Al-Jazeera, July 14, 2011, http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2011/07/2011714104413787827.html.

178«President Barak Obama’s Inaugural Address», White House Blog, http://www, whitehouse.gov/blog/inaugural-address.

179«Obama Pledges Support for Tunisia», Al-Jazeera, October 8, 2011, http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/10/08/170747.html.

180Indyk, Lieberthal, and O’Hanlon, Bending History, pp. 146—48. Смотри также комментарии президента, «Remarks by the President on the Situation in Egypt», http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/02/01/remarks-president-situation-egypt.

181«Clinton Calls for ‘Peaceful, Orderly Transition’ in Egypt», McClatchy, January 30, 2012, http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2012/01/30/107726/clinton-calls-for-peaceful-orderly.html.

182Steven Cook, The Struggle for Egypt: From Nasser to Tahrir Square (New York: Oxford University Press, 2011), pp. 272–307.

183James Mann, The Obamians: The Struggle Inside the White House to Define American Power (New York: Viking, 2012).

184Там же. С. 279.

185Helene Cooper, Mark Landler, and David E. Sanger, «In U. S. Signals to Egypt, Обама Straddled a Rift», New York Times, February 12, 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/13/world/middleeast/13diplomacy.hnml?pagewanted=all.

186Robin Wright, Rock the Casbah: Rage and Rebellion Across the Islamic World (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2012); Marc Lynch, The Arab Uprising: The Unfinished Revolutions of the New Middle East (New York: Public Affairs, 2012), pp. 43–66.

187Alaa Al Aswany, От the State of Egypt: What Made the Revolution Inevitable (New York: Vintage, 2011); Narek Osman, Egypt on the Brink (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2011).

188Alexis de Tocqueville, The Old Regime and the French Revolution (New York: Anchor, 1955), p. 177.

189У «Мусульманского братства» было большинство в 38 % голосов и 235 из 498 мест в насчитывающем 508 мест Народном собрании (символические 10 мест заполнялись по назначению президента страны). Исламская салафитская партия «Аль-Нур», даже чуть более радикальная, чем «Братья-мусульмане», получила 28 % и 123 места.

190Martin Indyk, Кеnneth G. Lieberthal, and Michael E. O’Hanlon, «Scoring Obama’s Foreign Policy», Foreign Affairs, May/June 2012, p.

191Tony Smith, America’s Mission: The United States and the Worldwide Struggle for Democracy in the Twentieth Century (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1994).