Майкл Шелленбергер - Конца света не будет. Почему экологический алармизм причиняет нам вред

Christine Figgener (sea turtle biologist) in conversation with the author, November 6, 2019.

“World’s Biggest Producer of Plastic to Curtail Its Use,” Bloomberg News, January 19, 2020, https://www.bloomberg.com

Elizabeth Kolbert, The Sixth Extinction: An Unnatural History (New York: Henry Holt & Company, 2014), 266–267.

“World Is ‘on Notice’ as Major UN Report Shows One Million Species Face Extinction,” UN News, May 6, 2019, https://news.un.org/en/story/2019/05/1037941. “UN Report: Nature’s Dangerous Decline ‘Unprecedented’; Species Extinction Rates ‘Accelerating,’ ” Sustainable Development Goals, May 6, 2019, https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/blog/2019/05/nature-decline-unprecedented-report.

“UN Report: Nature’s Dangerous Decline ‘Unprecedented.’ ”

“UN Report: Nature’s Dangerous Decline ‘Unprecedented.’ ”

Kolbert, The Sixth Extinction.

Luke J. Harmon and Susan Harrison, “Species Diversity Is Dynamic and Unbounded at Local and Continental Scales,” American Naturalist 185, no. 5 (2015): 584–93, https://doi.org/10.1086/680859. See also Thomas J. Stohlgren, John D. Barnett, and John T. Kartesz, “The Rich Get Richer: Patterns of Plant Invasions in the United States,” Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 1, no. 1 (2003): 11–14, https://doi.org/10.2307/3867959. Scientists have known for decades that the evidence “overwhelmingly supports the openness of communities to new species, even at the small spatial scales where species interact and the influences of competition and resource supply should be strongest.” For a recent discussion, see Rubén G. Mateo, Karel Mokany, and Antoine Guisan, “Biodiversity Models: What If Unsaturation Is the Rule?” Trends in Ecology & Evolution 32, no. 8 (2017): 556–66, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2017.05.003.

Fangliang He and Stephen P. Hubbell, “Species – Area Relationships Always Overestimate Extinction Rates from Habitat Loss,” Nature 473 (2011): 368–371, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09985.

Dov F. Sax, Steven D. Gaines, and James Brown, “Species Invasions Exceed Extinctions on Islands Worldwide: A Comparative Study of Plants and Birds,” The American Naturalist 160, no. 6 (2002): 766–783, https://doi.org/10.1086/343877.

Chris D. Thomas, “Rapid Acceleration of Plant Speciation During the Anthropocene,” Trends in Ecology & Evolution 30, no. 8 (2015): 448–455, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2015.05.009.

Kolbert, The Sixth Extinction, 186.

Ibid., 186–187.

Mark Sagoff, “Welcome to the Narcisscene,” Breakthrough Journal no. 9 (Summer 2018), https://thebreakthrough.org/journal/no-9-summer-2018/welcome-to-the-narcisscene.

The IUCN Red List of Endangered Species, https://www.iucnredlist.org.

The IUCN Red List of Endangered Species, https://www.iucnredlist.org.

The number of marina animal genera increased from 2,000 to 5,500 over 100 million years. Genus (p. genera) is the taxonomic rank above species. Marine animal fossils are hardy and easier to study, so scientists use their fossil record to approximate overall extinctions and growth in Earth’s geological history. J. J. Sepkoski, “A Compendium of Fossil Marine Animal Genera,” Bulletins of American Paleontology 363 (2002): 1–560.

The number of marina animal genera increased from 2,000 to 5,500 over 100 million years. Genus (p. genera) is the taxonomic rank above species. Marine animal fossils are hardy and easier to study, so scientists use their fossil record to approximate overall extinctions and growth in Earth’s geological history. J. J. Sepkoski, “A Compendium of Fossil Marine Animal Genera,” Bulletins of American Paleontology 363 (2002): 1–560.

Peter Brannen, “Earth Is Not in the Midst of a Sixth Mass Extinction,” The Atlantic, June 13, 2017, https://www.theatlantic.com.

Protected Planet Report 2018, United Nations Environment Programme, 2018, https://livereport.protectedplanet.net/pdf/Protected_Planet_Report_2018.pdf.

Marine Deguignet, Diego Juffe-Bignoli, Jerry Harrison et al., 2014 United Nations List of Protected Areas, United Nations Environment Programme, 2014, www.unep-wcmc.org.

A. J. Plumptre, S. Ayebare, D. Segan et al., “Conservation Action Plan for the Albertine Rift,” Wildlife Conservation Society and Its Partners, 2016, http://conservationcorridor.org/cpb/Plumptre_et_al_2016.pdf, 12.

“Living Planet Index,” 2018, Zoological Society of London and WWF, www.livingplanetindex.org.

Hannah Behrendt, Carole Megevand, and Klas Sander, “Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection,” Working Paper 5, “Wood-Based Biomass Energy,” Regional Commission in Charge of Forestry in Central Africa, April 2013, https://www.profor.info/sites/profor.info/files/Biomass%20Energy_Sectoral%20Report_Final%5Bweb%5D_may13_0.pdf.

Mark Jenkins, “Who Murdered the Virunga Gorillas?” National Geographic, July 2008, www.nationalgeographic.com.

Mark Jenkins, “Who Murdered the Virunga Gorillas?” National Geographic, July 2008, www.nationalgeographic.com.

Mark Jenkins, “Who Murdered the Virunga Gorillas?” National Geographic, July 2008, www.nationalgeographic.com.

Holly Dranginis, “Congo’s Charcoal Cartel,” Foreign Affairs, May 12, 2016, https://www.foreignaffairs.com.

Behrendt et al., “Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin,” 1.

Sophie Lewisohn, “Virunga: Preserving Africa’s National Parks Through People-Centred Development,” Capacity4dev, European Union, April 3, 2018, https://europa.eu/capacity4dev/articles/virunga-preserving-africas-national-parks-through-people-centred-development. Amy Yee, “The Power Plants That May Save a Park, and Aid a Country,” New York Times, August 30, 2017, https://www.nytimes.com.

Andrew Plumptre (senior scientist, Africa Program, Wildlife Conservation Society) in discussion with the author, February 10, 2015, and November 6, 2019.

Michael J. Kavanagh (journalist) in discussion with the author, November 29, 2014.

Abe Streep, “The Belgian Prince Taking Bullets to Save the World’s Most Threatened Park,” Outside, November 5, 2014, https://www.outsideonline.com.

Abe Streep, “The Belgian Prince Taking Bullets to Save the World’s Most Threatened Park,” Outside, November 5, 2014, https://www.outsideonline.com.

Jeffrey Gettlemen, “Oil Dispute Takes a Page from Congo’s Bloody Past,” New York Times, November 15, 2014, https://www.nytimes.com.

George Schaller, The Year of the Gorilla (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1988), 3.

George Schaller, The Year of the Gorilla (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1988), 8.

Paul Raffaele, “Gorillas in Their Midst,” Smithsonian, October 2007, https://www.smithsonianmag.com.

Andrew J. Plumptre et al., “Conservation Action Plan for the Albertine Rift” (unpublished report for Wildlife Conservation Society and its partners, 2016), 5, 7.

“What I was hearing in the mid-90s and early 2000s while working for IGCP was that the conflict in the DRC was all about greed and people wanting to exploit the minerals. Others said it was all about grievances and the Rwandan conflict. Doing my PhD I came to the conclusion that both aspects are at play, but the causes of the conflict stem from grievances.” Michael Shellenberger, “Violence, the Virungas, and Gorillas: An Interview with Conservationist Helga Rainer,” Breakthrough Institute, November 20, 2014, https://thebreakthrough.org/issues/conservation/violence-the-virungas-and-gorillas.

Mark Dowie, Conservation Refugees: The Hundred-Year Conflict Between Global Conservation and Native Peoples (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2009), xxi.

Mahesh Rangarajan and Ghazala Shahabuddin, “Displacement and Relocation from Protected Areas,” Conservation and Society 4, no. 3 (September 2006): 359, https://www.conservationandsociety.org.

Mark Dowie, Conservation Refugees: The Hundred-Year Conflict Between Global Conservation and Native Peoples.

Ibid., xxvi.

Sammy Zahran, Jeffrey G. Snodgrass, David G. Maranon et al., “Stress and Telomere Shortening Among Central Indian Conservation Refugees,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 112, no. 9 (March 3, 2015): E928–E936, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1411902112.

A. J. Plumptre, A. Kayitare, H. Rainer et al., “The Socio-economic Status of People Living near Protected Areas in the Central Albertine Rift,” Albertine Rift Technical Reports 4 (2004), https://www.researchgate.net/publication/235945000_Socioeconomic_status_of_people_in_the_Central_Albertine_Rift, 28.

Alastair McNeilage (primatologist, Wildlife Conservation Society) in discussion with the author, February 5, 2015.

Plumptre et al., “The Socio-economic Status of People Living near Protected Areas in the Central Albertine Rift,” 98.

Michael Shellenberger, “Postcolonial Gorilla Conservation: An Interview with Ecologist Sarah Sawyer,” Breakthrough Institute, November 19, 2014, https://thebreakthrough.org/issues/conservation/postcolonial-gorilla-conservation.

Michael Shellenberger, “Postcolonial Gorilla Conservation: An Interview with Ecologist Sarah Sawyer,” Breakthrough Institute, November 19, 2014, https://thebreakthrough.org/issues/conservation/postcolonial-gorilla-conservation.

Andrew Plumptre (senior scientist, Africa Program, Wildlife Conservation Society) in discussion with the author, November 6, 2019.

“2019–2020 Gorilla Tracking Permit Availability Uganda/Rwanda,” Kisoro Tours Uganda, https://kisorotoursuganda.com/2019-2020-gorilla-tracking-permit-availability-uganda-rwanda. Uganda remains a relative bargain at just $600.

Michael Shellenberger, “Postcolonial Gorilla Conservation: An Interview with Ecologist Sarah Sawyer,” https://thebreakthrough.org/issues/conservation/violence-the-virungas-and-gorillas.