Мауро Гильен - 2030. Как современные тренды влияют друг на друга и на наше будущее

Доступ на сайты осуществлялся вплоть до 21 сентября 2019 г.

О туалете см. "A Brief History of the Flush Toilet," British Association of Urological Surgeons, https://www.baus.org.uk/museum/164/the_flush_toilet; Nate Barksdale, «Who Invented the Flush Toilet?» History Channel, last updated August 22, 2018, https://www.history.com/news/who-invented-the-flush-toilet; Lina Zeldovich, «Reinventing the Toilet,» Mosaic, June 19, 2017, https://mosaicscience.com/story/poo-toilet-waste-energy-madagascar-loowatt-future; Phoebe Parke, «More Africans Have Access to Cell Phone Service than Piped Water,» CNN, January 19, 2016, https://www.cnn.com/2016/01/19/Africa/Africa-afrobarometer-infrastructure-report/index.html; United Nations University, «Greater Access to Cell Phones than Toilets in India: UN,» press release, April 14, 2010, https://unu.edu/media-relations/releases/greater-access-to-cell-phones-than-toilets-in-India.html; Pramit Bhattacharya, «88 % of Households in India Have a Mobile Phone,» LiveMint, December 5, 2016, https://www.livemint.com/Politics/kZ7j1NQf5614UvO6WURXfO/88-of-households-in-India-have-a-mobile-phone.html.

Об истории наручных часов см. Alexis McCrossen, Marking Modern Times: A History of Clocks, Watches, and Other Timekeepers in American Life (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2013); Michael L. Tushman and Daniel Radov, "Rebirth of the Swiss Watch Industry, 1980–1992 (A)," Harvard Business School Case 400-087, June 2000.

Цитаты Шумпетера по предпринимательству и разрушению взяты из Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy (New York: Harper & Brothers, 1942), 83.

Об искусственном интеллекте см. Laura Geggel, "Elon Musk Says 'Humans Are Underrated,'" Live-Science, April 17, 2018, https://www.livescience.com/62331-elon-musk-humans-underrated.html; William Fifield, «Pablo Picasso: A Composite Interview,» Paris Review 32 (Summer-Fall 1964).

О технологиях, робототехнике и рабочих местах см. Association for Advancing Automation, "Record Number of Robots Shipped in North America в 2018," February 28, 2019, https://www.a3automate.org/record-number-of-robots-shipped-in-north-america-in-2018; Executive Office of the President, «Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and the Economy,» December 2016, https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/whitehouse.gov/files/documents/Artificial-Intelligence-Automation-Economy.pdf; Maximiliano Dvorkin, «Jobs Involving Routine Tasks Aren't Growing,» Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, January 4, 2016, https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2016/january/jobs-involving-routine-tasks-arent-growing; Michael J. Hicks and Srikant Devaraj, «Myth and Reality of Manufacturing in America,» Center for Business and Economic Research, Ball State University, 2017; Mark Muro, «Manufacturing Jobs Aren't Coming Back,» MIT Technology Review , November 18, 2016; «Automation and Anxiety,» Economist, June 23, 2016, https://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21700758-will-smarter-machines-cause-mass-unemployment-automation-and-anxiety; Eliza Strickland, «Autonomous Robot Surgeon Bests Humans in World First,» IEEE Spectrum, May 4, 2016, https://spectrum.ieee.org/the-human-os/robotics/medical-robots/autonomous-robot-surgeon-bests-human-surgeons-in-world-first; Laura Sydell, «Sometimes We Feel More Comfortable Talking to a Robot,» NPR, February 24, 2018, https://www.npr.org/sections/alltechconsidered/2018/02/24/583682556/sometimes-we-feel-more-comfortable-talking-to-a-robot; Eyal Press, «The Wounds of a Drone Warrior,» New York Times , June 13, 2018; E. Awad et al., «The Moral Machine Experiment,» Nature 563 (November 2018): 59–64; Mauro F. Guillén and Srikar Reddy, «We Know Ethics Should Inform AI. But Which Ethics?» World Economic Forum, July 26, 2018, https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/07/we-know-ethics-should-inform-ai-but-which-ethics-robotics.

О 3D-печати см. Tim Moore, "This Startup Is Building Houses with the World's Biggest Freeform 3D Printer," Hypepotamous, April 9, 2019, https://hypepotamus.com/companies/branch-technology; Dave Flessner, «3D Printer to Move into Branch Technology's Riverside Drive Warehouse,» Times Free Press , July 8, 2018, https://www.timesfreepress.com/news/business/aroundregion/story/2018/jul/08/branch-technology-expands-beyond-incubator3d/474370; Davide Sher, «Branch Technologies' C-FAB 3D Process Can Build Better Walls… on Mars,» 3D Printing Media Network, February 26, 2018, https://www.3dprintingmedia.network/branch-technologies-c-fab-3d-process-can-take-us-mars.

О прогнозах по поводу интернета вещей см. Michelle Manafy, "Exploring the Internet of Things in 5 Charts," Digital Content Next, October 13, 2015, https://digitalcontentnext.org/blog/2015/10/13/exploring-the-internet-of-things-in-5-charts.

О виртуальной реальности см. Daniel Freeman and Jason Freeman, "How Virtual Reality Could Transform Mental Health Treatment," Psychology Today , May 13, 2016, https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/know-your-mind/201605/how-virtual-reality-could-transform-mental-health-treatment; S. M. Jung and W. H. Choi, «Effects of Virtual Reality Intervention on Upper Limb Motor Function and Activity of Daily Living in Patients with Lesions in Different Regions of the Brain,» Journal of Physical Therapy Science 29, no. 12 (December 2017): 2103–2106; Juanita Leatham, «How VR Is Helping Children with Autism Navigate the World Around Them,» VR Fitness Insider, June 22, 2018, https://www.vrfitnessinsider.com/how-vr-is-helping-children-with-autism-navigate-the-world-around-them.

О нанотехнологиях см. "The Price of Fast Fashion" (editorial), Nature Climate Change 8, no. 1 (2018); Jelena Bozic, «Nano Insulation Materials for Energy Efficient Buildings,» Contemporary Materials 6, no. 2 (2015): 149–159; Amy Yates, «Potential Breakthrough in Cancer-Fighting Nanomedicine,» National Foundation for Cancer Research, June 19, 2018, https://www.nfcr.org/blog/potential-breakthrough-cancer-fighting-nanomedicine; «MIT Programmable Material Adapts to Temperature Just Like Human Skin,» Design Boom, February 13, 2017, https://www.designboom.com/technology/mit-programmable-material-adapts-to-tempterature-02-13-2017; Michael Alba, «The Promise and Peril of Programmable Matter,» Engineering.com, May 24, 2017, https://www.engineering.com/DesignerEdge/DesignerEdgeArticles/ArticleID/14967/The-Promise-and-Peril-of-Programmable-Matter.aspx.

О соотношении печатных и электронных книг см. Edward Tenner, "Why People Stick with Outdated Technology," Scientific American , November 24, 2015; Craig Mod, «Digital Books Stagnate in Closed, Dull Systems, While Printed Books Are Shareable, Lovely and Enduring. What Comes Next?» Aeon , October 1, 2015, https://aeon.co/essays/stagnant-and-dull-can-digital-books-ever-replace-print; Gregory Bufithis, «Books vs. E-Books,» July 4, 2016, http://www.gregorybufithis.com/2016/07/04/books-vs-e-books-lets-not-lose-sight-of-the-main-goal-diverse-reading-and-increased-literacy; Ferris Jabr, «The Reading Brain in the Digital Age: The Science of Paper Versus Screens,» Scientific American , April 11, 2013; Pew Research Center, «Book Reading 2016,» https://www.pewinternet.org/2016/09/01/book-reading-2016. Видео годовалой девочки можно посмотреть по ссылке "A Magazine Is an iPad That Does Not Work.m4v, posted by UserExperienceWOrks, October 6, 2011, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aXV-yaFmQNk. Статистические данные взяты из Amy Watson, «Book Formats in the U.S.,» Statista, January 11, 2019, https://www.statista.com/topics/3938/book-formats-in-the-us.

О платформах электронных книг и обучении детей см. "Revolutionising eBook Access in South African Schools," Montegray Capital, February 2015, https://www.montegray.com/our-e-learning-solution-revolutionises-ebook-access-in-south-African-schools; «Worldreader,» Center for Education Innovations, https://educationinnovations.org/program/worldreader.

О структурной инерции и скачкообразном развитии см. Michael Hannan, "Structural Inertia and Organizational Change," American Sociological Review 49, no. 2 (1984): 149–164; United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Technology and Innovation Report 2018 (Geneva: UN, 2018), https://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/tir2018_en.pdf.

Данные по онлайн-продажам вина взяты в Euromonitor. О ситуации в Великобритании см. Julia Bower, "The Evolution of the UK Wine Market: From Niche to Mass-Market Appeal," Beverages , November 2018, https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5710/4/4/87/pdf.

О маховиках см. Ben Harder, "Reinventing the (Fly)Wheel," The Washington Post , April 18, 2011.

Доступ на сайты осуществлялся вплоть до 21 сентября 2019 г.

О гиг-экономике см. Eileen Appelbaum, Arne Kalleberg, and Hye Jin Rho, "Nonstandard Work Arrangements and Older Americans, 2005–2017," Economic Policy Institute, February 28, 2019, https://www.epi.org/publication/nonstandard-work-arrangements-and-older-americans-2005-2017; «Run, TaskRabbit, Run: July 2030,» Economist , July 7, 2018; Niam Yaraghi and Shamika Ravi, «The Current and Future State of the Sharing Economy,» Brookings Institution, Impact Series No. 032017, March 2017; PwC, «The Sharing Economy,» 2015, https://www.pwc.fr/fr/assets/files/pdf/2015/05/pwc_etude_sharing_economy.pdf; Brad Stone, The Upstarts: How Uber, Airbnb, and the Killer Companies of the New Silicon Valley Are Changing the World (New York: Little, Brown, 2017), Kindle ed., 32; Shirin Ghaffary, «The Experience Economy Will be a 'Massive Business,' According to Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky,» Vox, May 30, 2018, https://www.recode.net/2018/5/30/17385910/airbnb-ceo-brian-chesky-code-conference-interview; Kari Paul, «Millennials Are Trying to Redefine What It Means to Be an American Tourist Abroad,» MarketWatch, October 5, 2017, https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-we-can-all-learn-from-millennials-about-travel-2017-10-04.

Цитаты Юваля Ноя Харари взяты из "Were We Happier in the Stone Age?" The Guardian , September 5, 2014.

О социально-политических аспектах собственности см. Andrew G. Walder, "Transitions from State Socialism: A Property Rights Perspective," in The Sociology of Economic Life, ed. Mark Granovetter and Richard Swedberg (Boulder, CO: Westview, 2011), 510; Nathan Heller, "Is the Gig Economy Working?" The New Yorker , May 15, 2017.

О WhatsApp см. Jillian D'Onfro, "Facebook Bought WhatsApp One Year Ago Today. Here Are 11 Quotes from Its Billionaire Cofounders," Business Insider , February 19, 2015, https://www.businessinsider.com/brian-acton-jan-koum-quotes-whatsapp-2015-2#koum-on-their-no-nonsense-style-neither-of-us-has-an-ability-to-bull-10. Цитата Цукерберга взята из Jillian D'Onfro, «11 Mark Zuckerberg Quotes That Show How He Built the Company That Took Over the World,» Business Insider , January 1, 2014, https://www.businessinsider.com/best-mark-zuckerberg-quotes-2013-12.